霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：09 E
擾動編號日期：2020 年 08 月 08 日 00 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 08 月 14 日 07 時
91E.INVEST.15kts-1006mb-12.0N-110.0W


巔峰強度：85KT/975hPa

霧峰追風者

初使定位錯誤。

91E INVEST 200807 1200  12.5N   95.5W EPAC   20  1009

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions are forecast to
become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward, offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

king111807

JTWC發佈TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 080100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 96.3W TO 14.3N 103.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 97.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
95.5W, APPROXIMATELY 361 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BANDING TO THE NORTH. A 071952Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE MSI, REVEALING FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 071620Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE LLCC.
91E IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91E WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, NAVGEM IS AN OUTLIER, SHOWING INCREASED
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090100Z.//
NNNN

king111807

NHC展望提升至70%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to show some signs of organization.  
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward,
remaining offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

周子堯@FB

NHC 0809/02Z升格為TD-09E，首報上望Cat.1

775
WTPZ44 KNHC 090233
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of disturbed weather that
we have been monitoring to the south of Mexico has persisted for
more than 12 hours.  Directional ambiguities from an earlier ASCAT-B
scatterometer overpass suggest that the system has a closed
circulation, and recent satellite imagery shows that convection is
increasing near the estimated center while banding features are
becoming better defined.  The system has sufficient convective
organization and circulation to be designated as a tropical
depression, and advisories are being initiated.  Based on a ship
report and the scatterometer data, the current intensity is
estimated to be near 30 kt.  Upper-level outflow from the tropical
cyclone is becoming better defined, and the system will be moving
over warm waters and in a low-shear environment through early next
week.  With these conducive factors for strengthening, the cyclone
is likely to become a tropical storm rather soon and a hurricane
within a couple of days.  The official forecast is similar to the
model consensus but given the anticipated environment, this may be
conservative.  By days 3-5, cooler waters will likely lead to
weakening.

Although the center is not yet very well defined, my best estimate
of initial motion is a fairly climatological 295/12 kt.  The
steering pattern looks quite straightforward for the next several
days.  A pronounced 500 mb ridge extending westward from the
southwest United States over the Pacific should maintain a
generally west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period.
Late in the period, as the cyclone weakens, the shallower
circulation should turn westward with the lower-level flow.  The
official track forecast is mainly a combination of the simple and
corrected multi-model consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 14.7N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

周子堯@FB

周子堯@FB 發表於 2020-8-9 11:40
NHC 0809/02Z升格為TD-09E，首報上望Cat.1

命名和風速掃描

WTPZ44 KNHC 090849
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Deep convection associated with the cyclone has increased during the
past several hours, particularly in a band in the southeast
quadrant. Late-arriving ASCAT data valid around 0330 UTC revealed
that the cyclone's low-level wind structure was still somewhat
elongated in a SSW-NNE orientation. That said, the ASCAT data also
showed a few believable 30-35 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant
of the cyclone. That supports an intensity of 35 kt, making Elida
the 5th tropical storm of the 2020 eastern North Pacific season.

Even with the assistance of the ASCAT pass, it has been difficult to
track the center of the tropical storm this morning. The center of
Elida appears to have jumped somewhat northward since last night,
and further reformations of the center will be possible until the
system consolidates some more. The northward adjustment in the
position resulted in a slight adjustment to the track forecast in
that direction, but overall the tropical storm is still forecast to
move generally west-northwestward for the next several days, steered
by a mid-level ridge extending over northern Mexico and the
southwestern United States. A westward turn is likely near the end
of the forecast period as Elida weakens and low-level tradewinds
become the dominant steering mechanism. Overall the models are in
excellent agreement and confidence in the track forecast is fairly
high.

All of the statistical and regional hurricane intensity models
forecast Elida to strengthen and become a hurricane within 48 h.
Since the cyclone does not appear to have a tight inner-core yet,
only modest strengthening is forecast for the first 12 h, followed
by a faster rate after that. The extent of strengthening is still
highly uncertain, and the guidance ranges from a minimal to major
hurricane. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one
and the multi-model consensus. Elida is forecast to weaken later
this week after it reaches cooler waters to the north.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 15.8N 104.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

老農民版夜神月

NHC10/21Z升格09E為一級颶風，定強65節，上望+24H後80節

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 102033
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Elida continues to gradually gain strength.  Satellite images show
that the storm has a well organized central dense overcast and
curved bands that surround that feature.  Recent microwave images
show a partial eyewall, but dry slots appear to be preventing it
from completely closing off.  The satellite intensity estimates
have increased, and support upgrading Elida to a 65-kt hurricane.
The center of Elida is passing just north of Socorro Island.

The hurricane has about another day over warm water and in
generally favorable atmospheric conditions, so some additional
strengthening seems likely during that time period.  After that,
however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in
southerly shear in a few days should cause a steady weakening
trend.  Elida will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when
it is forecast to be in quite dry conditions and over cool 23 C
waters.  The NHC intensity forecast continues to lie at the high
end of the guidance in the short term, but falls near the middle of
the guidance envelope beyond a couple of days.

Elida is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  A mid-level ridge
located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer
the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed
for another couple of days.  After that time, the models diverge
with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing a more northward
motion toward a mid- to upper-level trough.  Conversely, the HWRF,
UKMET, and other models show a more westward motion in the low-level
flow. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted
northward, but it still lies closer to the southern end of the
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 19.6N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

老農民版夜神月

15Z升格二級颶風,NHC認為此刻便是巔峰,定強85KT,中心最低氣壓975百帕

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 111439
TCDEP4

Hurricane Elida Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Elida continued to get better organized through about 12Z, with the
eye becoming better defined inside the cold overcast.  Since then,
the eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting that the
hurricane has peaked in intensity.  Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were 90 kt at 12Z, and based mainly on these the
initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 305/12 kt.  The track
guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west-
northwestward for the next 36 h or so, and this part of the new
forecast track is similar to the previous track.  After that, there
is spread between the NAVGEM/UK Ensemble mean/COAMPS-TC models,
which show a more westward motion, and the bulk of the remaining
guidance which shows a northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed due to Elida interacting with an upper-level low off
of the coast of California.  The new forecast follows the
northwestward scenario and the various consensus models, and it has
been nudged to the right of the previous forecast.

Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the
center forecast to be over 24C water in 24 h and 23C in 48 h.  This
should lead to rapid weakening after 12 h or so.  The new intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and the previous
forecast in calling for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in
just over 24 h and to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h.  The new
forecast has the remnant low dissipating between 72-96 h, and the
global models suggest this could occur earlier than currently
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 21.3N 113.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven