老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：06 E
擾動編號日期：2020 年 07 月 11 日 19 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 07 月 16 日 01 時
98E INVEST 200711 1200 13.1N 96.9W EPAC 20 1009


  NHC：30%

1. A broad low pressure system that has developed southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are currently
unfavorable for development of a tropical cyclone, environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for the formation
of a tropical depression in two to three days while the system
moves quickly westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

巔峰強度：30KT/1007hPa

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望將評級提升至Medium,50%/80%

1. A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico, has become a little better defined this
morning. Although upper-level winds are currently only marginally
conducive for development of a tropical cyclone, environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for the formation
of a tropical depression in two or three days while the system
moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望60%,JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 121400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 102.5W TO 16.9N 111.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4N 103.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.5N 103.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1313 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW
LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FLANKED BY DEEP, CYCLING CONVECTION ALONG
THE PERIPHERY. A 121334Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS THE
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98E WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131400Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC13/21Z升格其為06E,目前GFS暫不看好未來強度發展;
NHC則預測能再增強至35節,使06E獲得命名

06E SIX 200713 1800 16.6N 111.9W EPAC 30 1007

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

The small disturbance and intermittent low pressure system that the
NHC has been tracking for the past few days has finally developed a
well-defined, closed surface circulation based on 1639Z ASCAT-B
surface wind vector ambiguity data, and the system is thus being
classified as Tropical Depression Six-E. Deep convection developed
overnight and this morning, which helped to spin up a low-level
center near and just inside of the northeastern portion of the
convective cloud canopy. In addition, the forward speed has also
decreased from 20 kt down to 14 kt, which has also likely helped to
close off the circulation on the south side. The ASCAT scatterometer
wind data data supported an intensity of at least 30 kt, and this is
consistent with 18Z Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt
from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt based on conventional,
microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12
hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered generally
westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days due
to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the
depression. By 96 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into an
open wave. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly
packed simple consensus models, which is a just a little south of
the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA.

The current northerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt affecting
the depression is forecast to decrease to below 10 kt in 12-18
hours, and remain that way until the 48-h period. This should allow
for some slight strengthening to occur during the next 36 hours or
so. By 48 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26
deg C sea-surface temperatures and the shear is forecast to become
westerly to northwesterly at near 20 kt. The combination of these
two negative factors should induce significant weakening of the
small tropical cyclone, resulting in degeneration to a remnant low
by 72 h and dissipation by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast
closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 16.6N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

老農民版夜神月

強度已開始逐漸減弱,NHC亦不再上望TS,06E幾乎確定無緣命名

802
WTPZ41 KNHC 141438
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

The depression has been moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface
temperatures (about 28C) over the past few hours, and a
nontrivial amount of deep convection redeveloped soon after the
issuance of the previous advisory, albeit at least 60 n mi to the
southwest of the low-level center.  However, with no appreciable
change in the cyclone's structure, the initial intensity remains 25
kt in accordance with the overnight scatterometer data.  The
depression is forecast to reach waters colder than 26C in 12-24
hours, which should extinguish the remaining deep convection.  The
updated NHC forecast now shows the depression degenerating into a
remnant low by 24 hours, with dissipation by 48 hours.  Another
scenario is that the depression could dissipate at any time if it
opens up into a trough, which is shown by most of the global model
guidance.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt, which is
more poleward than has been shown by the dynamical track models.  
Because of this, the simpler shallow trajectory models are given a
higher contribution on this cycle, with the new NHC track forecast
ending up a bit north of the previous forecast.  The depression
and its remnants are expected to gradually accelerate toward the
west-northwest or west over the next day or two until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

老農民版夜神月

減弱速度超乎預期，NHC14/21Z便判定已減弱成為殘餘低氣壓並對其停編，06E成旋時間僅大約24小時

WTPZ41 KNHC 142037
TCDEP1

Remnants Of Six-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that the circulation of the
tropical depression is no longer closed with light and variable
winds evident on its south side.  Therefore, the system no longer
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last
advisory issued by NHC.  The initial intensity remains 25 kt based
on the ASCAT data, which showed an area of 20-25 kt winds on the
system's north side.  The remnants of the depression are currently
producing a very limited amount of shower activity, but the
associated convection could pulse up and down for another day until
the trough moves over cooler waters.

The trough is moving westward at about 15 kt and it should continue
in that direction for another couple of days until it completely
dissipates.

For additional information on this system please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 18.2N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$