老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：92 A
擾動編號日期：2020 年 05 月 27 日 04 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 06 月 01 日 22 時
92A INVEST 200526 1800 14.0N 56.0E IO 15 1010

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於27/1330Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 55.5E, APPROXIMATELY 146 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN.  
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270911Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING. A 270448Z METOP-
A ASCAT IMAGE FURTHER INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SHARP TROUGH WITH 20-25KT SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20 KNOT) VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29-30C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, EXCEPT UKMET WHICH HAS THE SYSTEM
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC28/18Z提升評級為Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 55.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 54.5E, APPROXIMATELY 32
NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 281429Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT 92A WILL STRADDLE THE OMAN COASTLINE AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE
AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION DEPENDS LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE TO THE
COASTLINE THE LLC REMAINS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

IMD編號ARB/01

IMD:ARB/01
Depression over south coastal Oman and adjoining Yemen
Dated: 29.05.2020

A DEPRESSION LIES OVER SOUTH COASTAL OMAN AND ADJOINING YEMEN AT 1430 IST OF 29TH MAY 2020

老農民版夜神月

JTWC29/2100Z發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 16.8N 54.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 292100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 54.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.8N  54.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 54.2E, APPROXIMATELY 12
NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 291809Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL AN CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT 92A WILL SOON TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND CROSS OVER
LAND INTO OMAN. THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE INDICATED THIS
TRACK, BUT IT HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED THUS LEADING TO A HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF SHOWS 92A CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY ONCE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302100Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

逐漸深入陸地，JTWC撤TCFA，降評Medium

WTIO21 PGTW 301730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION (INVEST 92A)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292051ZMAY2020//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 292100). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 54.2E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 54.3E, APPROXIMATELY 16 NM NORTHEAST OF SALALAH
AIRPORT, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
301318Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH DECREASING FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 92A IN AN AREA WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER 92A IS CURRENTLY OVER
LAND. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 92A WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND ECMWF SHOWS 92A MAINTAINING INTENSITY EVEN AFTER 24 HOURS OVER
LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

進入陸地後結構持續遭受損害,原先看好能於陸上略微增強的數值亦已紛紛倒戈
JTWC31/1800Z報撤評

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 53.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.