老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：91 L
擾動編號日期：2020 年 05 月 27 日 01 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 05 月 29 日 19 時
91L.INVEST.25kts.1010mb.29.6N.81W


  NHC：20%  

1. Showers and thunderstorms located over extreme northeastern  
Florida, adjacent Atlantic waters, and the northwestern Bahamas are
associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an
upper-level disturbance.  Although a weak surface low has formed
within the trough near Orlando, Florida, little if any further
development of this system is expected due to land interaction,
strong upper-level winds, and an abundance of dry air in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere. The broad disturbance is forecast to
move northward today and Wednesday, remaining inland or near the
coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of coastal sections of northeastern Florida
and Georgia today, and over portions of the Carolinas on Tuesday
and Wednesday.  Gusty winds could also produce rough marine
conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the
coasts of northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through
Wednesday.

For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

周子堯@FB

NHC :HIGH

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure near the southeast U.S. coast.

Radar imagery indicates that the area of disturbed weather located
just offshore the South Carolina Coast has become significantly
better organized over the past few hours. Reports from an offshore
buoy are showing that this system is producing tropical-storm-force
winds. If these development trends continue, then this system
is likely to become a tropical storm before it moves inland later
today.

Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding over portions of the
Carolinas today.  Gusty winds could also produce rough marine
conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the
coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas through today.

1. For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 3PM EDT Wednesday, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

NHC27/12Z直接升格TS,並命名其為Bertha

286
WTNT42 KNHC 271209
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022020
830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking over the
past day or so has quickly become better organized this morning.  
The circulation has become better defined and the center has
reformed beneath the area of deep convection just offshore of the
coast of South Carolina. Recent NWS Doppler radar data from
Charleston and buoy data indicates that the system is producing
tropical-storm-force winds.  Therefore, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Storm Bertha.  The system will be moving
inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is
expected.  Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken
rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday.

There is very little continuity on the initial motion since the
center has only recently formed.  The best estimate of the initial
motion is 320/8 kt. The system should continue to move generally
northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located
over the western Atlantic.  The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

Key Messages:

1. Bertha is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
eastern and central South Carolina, west-central to far
southeastern North Carolina, and southwest Virginia.  This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash flooding.

2. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm winds to portions of
the South Carolina coast within the warning area in the next few
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1230Z 32.7N  79.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  27/1800Z 33.2N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  28/0600Z 35.8N  81.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
36H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

老農民版夜神月

NHC判定02L.Bertha已於27/1330Z登陸南卡羅來納州

925
WTNT42 KNHC 271432
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022020
1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The circulation of Bertha remained compact yet well-defined
through landfall, which occurred around 930 AM EDT near Mount
Pleasant, South Carolina. Buoy data around that time indicated
that maximum sustained winds had increased to around 45 kt.
Although the center has moved inland, a strong rain band with
onshore flow continues to slowly migrate northward along the South
Carolina coast. Therefore it is anticipated that
tropical-storm-force winds will remain possible in the warning area
over the next few hours. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression later today, then weaken to a remnant low tonight as the
center moves farther inland.

Model guidance is in good agreement on taking the weakening cyclone
north to north-northwestward through tonight, followed by a turn to
the north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed later on
Thursday. This official track is only slightly east of the previous
one and is near the multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across
portions of eastern to central South Carolina into west central to
far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia.  Ongoing river
flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region.

2. Bertha is expected to continue to bring tropical storm winds to
portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area over
next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 33.3N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  28/0000Z 35.2N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  28/1200Z 38.8N  79.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
36H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven