霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：07 S
擾動編號日期：2020 年 01 月 05 日 06 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 01 月 19 日 08 時
92S.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-8.2S-133.5E



出海重新發展

jrchang5

JTWC 06/06Z提升評級至Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6S 134.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150
NM NORTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGELY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 060002Z
MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PREDOMINANTLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. A COINCIDENT METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
TIGHTENING, THOUGH STILL ASYMMETRIC, LLC WITH ISOLATED 25 TO 30 KNOT
WIND BARDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (31
TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE
(25 TO 35 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
ARNHEM LAND WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

BoM07/06Z預測大約1天後升格,並將於澳洲中北部登陸

Headline:
Tropical low continues to intensify east of the Wessel Islands.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: Cape Don to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy, Milingimbi, Maningrida and offshore islands.
Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.0 degrees South, 137.4 degrees East , 150 kilometres north northeast of Nhulunbuy and 365 kilometres east northeast of Maningrida .
Movement: southwest at 8 kilometres per hour .
A developing tropical low east of the Wessel islands is currently moving slowly southwest. The low is expected to turn to the west-southwest overnight tonight. It will continue to intensify and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Thursday morning. The system will approach and most likely cross the north coast later in the week.

jrchang5

BoM已編號熱帶低壓03U。目前結構不佳，仍呈高低層分離，並已逐漸迴轉偏西緩慢移動。預測未來將逐漸發展，可能於2日後以澳式C2強度登陸北領地。

IDD20021
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1941 UTC 07/01/2020
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.2S
Longitude: 137.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [3 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  08/0000: 11.2S 136.8E:     040 [080]:  030  [055]:  999
+12:  08/0600: 11.2S 136.4E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]:  998
+18:  08/1200: 11.3S 136.0E:     065 [125]:  030  [060]:  996
+24:  08/1800: 11.3S 135.7E:     080 [145]:  035  [065]:  994
+36:  09/0600: 11.4S 135.1E:     100 [185]:  050  [095]:  987
+48:  09/1800: 11.8S 134.4E:     120 [220]:  060  [110]:  984
+60:  10/0600: 12.2S 133.3E:     140 [255]:  040  [070]:  996
+72:  10/1800: 12.7S 131.5E:     155 [290]:  030  [055]: 1001
+96:  11/1800: 13.5S 126.6E:     200 [370]:  040  [070]:  996
+120: 12/1800: 14.7S 121.5E:     290 [535]:  060  [105]:  984
REMARKS:
Tropical low 03U location is poor due to being a sheared system. The centre is
mostly based on persistence, ASCAT pass and Cape Wessel observations indicating
the LLCC is still in the vicinity. The mid level circulation centre was lost
from Gove radar but may be starting to show again as convection redevelops.

Deep convection that was developing near the centre around 12 hours ago had
weakened overnight. Dvorak analysis at the time indicated a log 10 0.25 wrap
yielding a T2.0. MET and PT agreed. The latest intensity is based on poor
satellite signatures, hence MET is the best guess.

Overall organisation remains poor due to 20-25 knots shear affecting the system,
driven chiefly by upper southerlies along the rear flank of an upper trough over
eastern Australia. The shear is forecast to decrease in the next 12-24 hours as
the upper trough moves east over Qld and the upper STR realigns across the low
to TC Blake. Hence, the environment is expected to become favourable for
development.

Current movement is slow but expected to take a westwards movement in the next
12-24 hours due to a mid-level ridge developing over land to the south. This
ridge may become the dominant steering flow for the remainder of the life of the
cyclone.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0200 UTC.

jrchang5

JTWC 08/06Z發布TCFA。

WTPS21 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 136.4E TO 12.2S 131.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080001Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 135.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S. 137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 135.8E, APPROXIMATELY
84 NM NORTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 080101Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. A
RADAR SYSTEM AT GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA SHOWS LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (31
TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE
(25 TO 35 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THAT 92S
WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD LAND WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090600Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

目前主流數值系集多看好其後期強度發展

jrchang5

BoM判定低層中心已於09/00Z前登陸北領地北岸。過去因垂直風切過大，始終維持熱帶低壓強度，預計西移出海後，始有可能進一步發展。

IDD20021
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0213 UTC 09/01/2020
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.2S
Longitude: 134.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  09/0600: 12.4S 133.7E:     040 [080]:  030  [055]:  996
+12:  09/1200: 12.6S 133.1E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]:  997
+18:  09/1800: 12.6S 132.8E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]:  996
+24:  10/0000: 12.4S 131.7E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  998
+36:  10/1200: 12.3S 130.7E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]:  996
+48:  11/0000: 11.8S 129.2E:     120 [220]:  035  [065]:  995
+60:  11/1200: 12.0S 127.6E:     140 [255]:  045  [085]:  988
+72:  12/0000: 12.6S 125.6E:     155 [290]:  050  [095]:  986
+96:  13/0000: 14.3S 120.6E:     200 [370]:  065  [120]:  977
+120: 14/0000: 16.2S 115.0E:     290 [535]:  075  [140]:  969
REMARKS:
Tropical low 03U continues to show deep convective development near the centre,
with rotation evident in radar imagery. The centre position was estimated
through a combination of radar and satellite imagery, and nearby Automatic
Weather Station [AWS] observations. Surface winds at Maningrida Airport have
turned northwesterly in the last few hours with pressures also decreasing,
indicating a general southwestward movement. Confidence in the centre position
is fair.

No Dvorak intensity available as system is now over land. The last [12-hour-old]
scatterometer observations suggested wind strengths of 30 knots or so over
water. NESDIS ADT suggests CI of 3.3 with max wind of 51 knots [1-minute mean],
however there is low confidence in this estimate given the uniform scene type
and centre position being over water. Intensity is set at 30 knots with these
winds suspected to be under the deeper convection over water only. Land-based
observations suggest much lower wind speeds.

CIMSS satellite winds suggest 20 to 30 knots of deep layer E-SE'ly shear
persists over the system, driven chiefly by upper southeasterlies between an
upper trough over eastern Australia and an upper anticyclone over northwestern
Australia. The shear is forecast to decrease in the next 24 to 48 hours as the
upper trough retrogresses and the rear jet moves to the south of the system.
Hence, the environment is expected to become favourable for development if the
system moves over water. Thus, the intensity forecast has now been backed off
until clear signs of movement of water and organisation appears in the system.

Current movement is west-southwesterly, and this is expected to continue today,
however the system may begin to move towards the west-northwest during Friday
and Saturday as a mid-level ridge over southern Australia establishes itself as
the dominant steering influence.  

The system is likely to continue moving generally west to southwestward offshore
of the northern WA coast in the longer term, with further development likely in
a moderately favourable environment.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0800 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

由於系統中心已暫時進入澳洲陸地,JTWC09/0630Z調降評級為Medium

WTXS21 PGTW 090630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080551ZJAN20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 080600). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 135.0E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH
RECENTLY MOVED OVERLAND WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH. A 090040Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A SEVERAL AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTLINE. A 090041Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A SMALL SWATH OF 30-KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC.
92S IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITHOUT INTENSIFICATION
FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE EMERGING BACK OVER WATER IN THE TIMOR SEA,
AT WHICH POINT IT MAY INTENSIFY TO WARNING THRESHOLD.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN