老農民版夜神月

  中度颱風  
編號：1929 ( 30 W )
名稱：巴逢 ( Phanfone )

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 12 月 18 日 06 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 12 月 20 日 02 時
CWB升格日期: 2019 年 12 月 21 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 12 月 22 日 08 時
停編日期　　：2019 年 12 月 28 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：菲律賓 東薩馬省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：38 m/s ( 12 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：40 m/s ( 80 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：95 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓：962 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：150 公里
十級風半徑　　：050 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
98W INVEST 191217 1800 4.5N 158.5E WPAC 15 1010


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18/1900Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7N
157.0E, APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A PARTIAL 181703 SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE BROAD LLCC. INVEST 98W IS IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JMA19/18Z升格TD,20/00Z發布[W];目前最新的數值系集亦支持其能有一定程度上的發展

ben811018

進入南海後變數大，也會決定月底的天氣XD

寶藍色小孩

ben811018 發表於 2019-12-20 10:36
進入南海後變數大，也會決定月底的天氣XD

這個回馬槍可能要注意一下
雖然應該只是一些殘留雲系了啦xD
看能不能搭配一下強冷空氣讓山上拼一波雪景

t02436

評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 155.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 148.7E, APPROXIMATELY 245
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 200316Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 98W IS IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND THEN SLOWLY TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 13Z發布TCFA

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 143.2E TO 7.4N 137.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.9N 142.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 148.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 142.7E, APPROXIMATELY 384
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CICULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN A 202314 METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 210030Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER, WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST REMAIN WEAK (10 TO 15
KNOTS), BUT ONLY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL ENABLE IT TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR IN THE NEAR TERM, SO ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS 98W SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

老農民版夜神月

JMA06Z發布GW

熱帯低気圧
令和元年12月21日16時15分 発表

<21日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 5度20分(5.3度)
東経 142度35分(142.6度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<22日03時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 6度05分(6.1度)
東経 141度00分(141.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 80km(45NM)

<22日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 7度05分(7.1度)
東経 138度55分(138.9度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)