(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) IS LOCATED NEAR 4.2N
169.6E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. A 220724Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 220950Z ASCAT-B PASS SUPPORTS
THE LOCATION OF THIS BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH
(20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94W WILL
INITIALLY BE ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH DUE TO A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS AND NAVGEM DEPICT WINDS FULLY WRAPPING AROUND
THE CIRCULATION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 419
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 240240Z AMSR2 89/36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSETTING LOW
(1O TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING,
POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 156.7E TO 12.5N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 154.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 154.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE AND LITTLE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 250323Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A LARGELY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. 94W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING, WITH THE LLC TIGHTENING AND REACHING WARNING CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN
ENHANCED WIND FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE BEFORE THE CIRCULATION FULLY
DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260900Z.//
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