老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：19 E
擾動編號日期：2019 年 10 月 19 日 19 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 10 月 22 日 07 時
90E INVEST 191019 0600 17.3N 104.4W EPAC 20 1008




  NHC：30%  

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near
the west-central coast of Mexico is associated with a weak low
pressure area embedded within an elongated surface trough.  Some
development of this system is possible before it moves inland over
west-central Mexico and dissipates by late Sunday.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall associated with this disturbance could
produce flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas of mountainous terrain,
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

-MAX:35,1004

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望已提升至High,70%/70%

1. Recent satellite wind data and conventional satellite imagery
indicate that the area of low pressure located near the west-central
coast of Mexico has become better organized and is producing winds
to near tropical storm strength.  Some additional development is
possible and this system has the potential to become a short-lived
tropical depression or storm this morning or later today before
it moves inland by Sunday night. Regardless of whether or not this
system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall associated with
this disturbance could produce flash flooding and mudslides across
portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain, during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC09Z升格TD19E,預測24H內將登陸墨西哥

WTPZ44 KNHC 200845
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Microwave, geostationary satellite, and scatterometer data indicate
that the small area of low pressure located near the southwestern
coast of Mexico quickly became better defined during the evening
hours, and deep convection has persisted and become better
organized overnight.  Multiple ASCAT passes revealed winds of at
least 25-30 kt over the southern portion of the circulation, and
based on these data, the system is being classified as a 30-kt
tropical depression.

The depression is moving northward or 355/6 kt. The global models
indicate that the depression will move generally northward around
the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico.  This motion should
bring the center of the cyclone inland over southwestern Mexico
later today or early tonight.  The NHC track forecast follows a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF model fields.

The depression is currently located over warm waters and within an
area of moderate easterly shear.  In fact, the center of the
depression is currently located near the eastern edge of the
convective mass.  Due to the shear and the very short time the
system is expected to remain over water, only slight strengthening
is predicted. The depression, however, could become a short-lived
tropical storm later today.  Once inland, the cyclone should rapidly
weaken and dissipate over the high terrain of southwestern Mexico.

The primary threat with the cyclone will be heavy rainfall
and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides over portions
of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 17.5N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  20/1800Z 18.3N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  21/0600Z 19.6N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

NHC12Z升格TS,命名Priscilla

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 201145
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 104.0 West. Priscilla is
is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight.  On the forecast track, the
center of Priscilla will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
within the warning area later today, and move inland by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional slight strengthening is possible
before Priscilla moves inland.  Rapid weakening and dissipation is
expected after landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in
southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night.  This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of
the warning area later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

t02436

1930Z登陸墨西哥，03Z停編。

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Priscilla Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Priscilla moved inland along the coast of southwestern Mexico around
1930 UTC just to the east of Manzanillo. The rugged terrain in that
area is expected to cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken and
dissipate by 12 hours, if not sooner. Satellite intensity estimates
at 1800 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T2.7/37 kt and
38 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an
intensity of 35 kt at that time. However, the intensity has been
decreased to 30 kt at the advisory time since Priscilla is now
located inland, with most of the deep convection having been
displaced well to the north of the low-level center.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Tropical Depression
Priscilla will continue to move northward and farther inland over
southwestern Mexico, resulting in rapid weakening and dissipation
during the next 12 hours. A 12-hour forecast position was provided
mainly for continuity purposes.

The primary threat with Priscilla and its remnants will be heavy
rainfall, along with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 19.1N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
12H  21/0600Z 20.0N 104.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN