老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：96 E
擾動編號日期：2019 年 10 月 11 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 10 月 15 日 13 時
96E INVEST 191011 1200 15.7N 110.2W EPAC 20 1007


  NHC：70%  

1. An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form over the weekend while the system moves northwestward and then
northward at 5 to 10 mph.  Development will become less likely
early next week when the system begins to encounter colder waters
and stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於11/1600Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 109.8W TO 18.5N 112.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 110.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7W 110.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 1088 NM SSE OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. A 111411Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
WHICH ALONG WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 96E WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121600Z.
//
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