老農民版夜神月

  五級颶風  
編號：13 L
名稱：Lorenzo

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 22 日 11 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 09 月 23 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 10 月 03 日 15 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：140 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：925 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90L.INVEST.15kts.1012mb.11N.20W


  NHC：60%  

2. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
overnight and on Sunday.  Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during
the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

FWC-N發布TCFA

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 16.5W TO 11.4N 24.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 16.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AT 15 TO 20 KT.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望已提升至90%/90%

1. Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure has
formed in association with a strong tropical wave over the far
eastern Atlantic. The associated thunderstorm activity continues
to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while
the system moves generally westward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should
monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development,
this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the
next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

t02436

NHC升格13L，上望95節不封頂。

424
WTNT43 KNHC 230244
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Satellite imagery and partial scatterometer overpasses indicate
that the tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has
developed enough circulation and organized convection to be
designated a tropical depression.  The convection is currently
organized into a large band over the western semicircle, with an
additional smaller band to the southeast.  The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB.

The initial motion is 270/14.  A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the depression should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the center passing
well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Near
the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn
northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the ridge.  The track
guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track is in best
agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear
environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4
days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent
strengthening.  The intensity forecast thus calls for steady
intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near
the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h.  Some southwesterly
shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in
strength from 96-120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 10.8N  20.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 10.8N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 11.1N  25.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/1200Z 11.8N  28.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  25/0000Z 12.6N  31.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  26/0000Z 13.8N  36.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  27/0000Z 15.5N  41.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 19.0N  45.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

老農民版夜神月

NHC23/15Z報升格TS,命名Lorenzo

000
WTNT43 KNHC 231446
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one
over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been
designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support
tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but
its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB
classification was a little higher.

Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the
low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep
convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly
Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is
located within a generally favorable environment for
intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo
becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The
official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows
Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued
strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were
made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the
location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone
has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt.
Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to be steered generally westward to
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over
the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in
the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is
based heavily on HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 11.1N  24.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 11.5N  26.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 12.0N  28.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 12.5N  31.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 13.1N  34.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  26/1200Z 14.6N  39.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  27/1200Z 17.1N  43.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 20.5N  47.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格一級颶風,並預測+36H後將達MH

000
WTNT43 KNHC 250857
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity
near the center of Lorenzo during the past several hours. There have
been no good microwave passes over the cyclone since yesterday,
however, a partial SSMIS pass showed hints that a mid-level eye is
forming. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on
a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB,
and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Lorenzo is
the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification probability models both
show that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Lorenzo
will strengthen by 25 kt or more during the next 24 hours. The large
size of the cyclone appears to be the only obvious inhibiting factor
to rapid intensification since the environment is otherwise quite
favorable for continued strengthening. The NHC forecast now shows
Lorenzo becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, faster than
previously anticipated. By 72 h and beyond, most of the guidance
keeps Lorenzo in a nearly steady state. In reality, most strong
hurricanes have some short-term fluctuations in intensity, but such
fluctuations are nearly impossible to forecast this far out in time.
Regardless of its exact intensity, confidence is high that Lorenzo
will be a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern and central
Atlantic through the rest of this week.

No changes of significance were made to the track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to move west-northwestward for the next day or so,
before turning northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. A turn toward the north is anticipated by the end of the
forecast period. The models are still in fairly good agreement on
the track of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast is between the
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 13.6N  33.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 14.0N  36.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 14.7N  38.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  26/1800Z 15.9N  40.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  27/0600Z 17.5N  41.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  28/0600Z 21.1N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  29/0600Z 24.0N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 27.4N  43.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

老農民版夜神月

NHC判定26/03Z升格二級颶風,並預測巔峰將達110節

000
WTNT43 KNHC 260235
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite
imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave
overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to
consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the
center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This
could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a
well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this
evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo,
and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the
northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this
advisory.

Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense
overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is
believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center
will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely
develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within
the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a
light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should
allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing
shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching
mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The
official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on
the high end of the guidance through 72 hours.

Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a
break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of
days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5,
the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the
periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast
was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting
at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 14.7N  38.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  26/1200Z 15.2N  39.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  27/0000Z 16.8N  41.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  27/1200Z 18.5N  42.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  28/0000Z 20.4N  43.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  29/0000Z 23.8N  43.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  30/0000Z 27.5N  42.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 31.9N  39.1W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

風眼開啟,T6.0,NHC26/10Z判定直升MH,110節

000
WTNT43 KNHC 261003
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Shortly after the issuance of the 0900 UTC advisory, Lorenzo's eye
quickly and drastically became more apparent in conventional
satellite imagery. The slightly ragged but clearing eye of the
hurricane is surrounded by very cold cloud tops, and it has become
clear that Lorenzo is rapidly intensifying. A 0900 UTC TAFB Dvorak
classification of 6.0/6.0 (115 kt) was used as the primary basis for
increasing the intensity of Lorenzo. Because objective fixes from
just a few hours ago were much lower, the intensity of the hurricane
has been increased, perhaps conservatively, to 110 kt. Since this is
10 kt above the previous 12-h forecast, a special advisory is
required to update the intensity forecast.

Additional strengthening is possible later today. Earlier intensity
guidance indicated that Lorenzo's intensity should level off in a
day or so, though none of the guidance correctly anticipated the
rate at which the hurricane has strengthened this morning. Now that
the hurricane has a closed eyewall, fluctuations in intensity due to
eyewall replacement cycles are also possible, though this is not
explicitly reflected in the updated forecast. By the end of the
forecast period, the updated NHC forecast is relaxed to the original
forecast and shows some gradual weakening. Further adjustments,
especially at 72 h and beyond, may be required later this morning.

No changes were made to the track forecast, which is based on the
previous regular advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1000Z 15.2N  39.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  26/1800Z 16.0N  40.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  27/0600Z 17.7N  41.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  27/1800Z 19.5N  43.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  28/0600Z 21.2N  43.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  29/0600Z 24.6N  43.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  30/0600Z 28.0N  42.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 33.0N  38.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky