03A.Hikaa 以C1直襲阿曼

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-9-19 16:39

  特強氣旋風暴
編號：ARB 02 ( 03 A )
名稱：Hikaa

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 19 日 16 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 09 月 23 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 09 月 23 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 27 日 13 時
登陸地點　　：阿曼

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD )：75 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：85 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓：978 百帕

  過去路徑圖
無

  擾動編號資料
96A INVEST 190919 0600 18.0N 72.0E IO 15 1010

以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-9-20 02:41

JTWC19/1800Z評級Low

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.0N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. A 191321Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION EXTENDING
EAST OVER LAND NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
NEAR MUMBAI HAVE RECORDED LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND. 96A
IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY, DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE KATHIAWAR
PENINSULA, BEFORE ACCELERATING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN WEAK, LIKELY NOT REACHING THE BASIN
WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS.  NAVGEM IS THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IN
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY, THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FARTHER NORTH,
TAKING THE STORM INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND EVENTUALLY THE PERSIAN
GULF AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS ASSESSED AS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
   (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-9-22 08:17

本帖最後由老農民版夜神月於 2019-9-22 08:33 編輯

JTWC21/2300Z提升評級為Medium

ABIO10 PGTW 212300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/212300Z-221800ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2N 70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 69.9E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 211901Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS 96A IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-25 KNOTS) AND HAS VERY LITTLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF SHOWS 96A REACHING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
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TXIO22 KNES 212104
TCSNIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96A)

B.  21/2030Z

C.  19.7N

D.  69.4E

E.  FIVE/MET-8

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...ZHU

20190921 2030 19.7 -69.4    T1.5/1.5    96A  96A
20190921 1430 19.4 -69.7    T1.5/1.5    96A  96A
20190921 0830 19.2 -69.8    T1.0/1.0    96A  96A

96A INVEST 190921 0000 19.4N 70.4E IO 20 1002

96A INVEST 190921 1800 19.2N 69.9E IO 25 1002

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-9-23 00:12

JTWC發布TCFA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 68.6E TO 20.4N 61.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 68.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 70.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 560
NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221135Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A 220448Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS 96A
HAS RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, BUT IS MOVING INTO AN AREA
OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS OMAN.
ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF SHOWS 96A REACHING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
BY TAU 30. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-9-23 06:47

JTWC22/21Z升格03A

WTIO31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 67.2E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 67.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.4N 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.3N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.2N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.0N 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.6N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.2N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 66.8E.
22SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN OVERALL COMPACT SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
OVERTOP OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING
FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND A 221626Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A LOW REFLECTIVITY NOTCH FEATURE TO THE EAST OF A POCKET OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ON THE LOWER
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND T3.0/45KTS FROM
KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SMALL AREA
OF 30 KNOT WIND BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH A REGION OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR MASIRAH, OMAN AFTER TAU 48 AND TRACK INLAND. THE
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT AN EXTENSIVE
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF
40 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK. THE MODELS DO VARY IN ALONG
TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 36 HOWEVER THERE IS STILL OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z,
231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-9-23 15:43

本帖最後由老農民版夜神月於 2019-9-23 16:00 編輯

IMD23/03Z升格03A為氣旋風暴,並命名Hikaa

rsmc01.pdf (335.22 KB, 下載次數: 5)

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-9-24 00:40

本帖最後由老農民版夜神月於 2019-9-24 07:33 編輯

JTWC目前定強60節,並預測短時間內此系統仍有持續增強的趨勢

WTIO31 PGTW 231500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 63.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 63.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.3N 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.1N 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.7N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.4N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 62.9E.
23SEP19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265
NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
BT
#0001
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