老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：11 L
名稱：Imelda

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 17 日 07 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 09 月 18 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：美國 德州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：35 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：1006 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
98L INVEST 190917 0000 25.0N 94.0W ATL 15 NA


  NHC：20%  

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland along
the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night.  Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding along portions of the central
and upper Texas coastal areas later this week.  For additional
information, see products issued by your local weather forecast
office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC17/17Z升格TD.11L

449
WTNT41 KNHC 171706
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low
pressure near the Upper Texas coast has become better defined this
morning.  The associated deep convection has also become better
organized, and winds from the Houston Doppler Radar support
an initial intensity of 30 kt.  Based on these data, advisories are
being initiated on a tropical depression.  The system has very
little time left over water in which to strengthen, but given the
recent increase in organization, the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm before it moves inland.  As a result, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Upper Texas
coast.  Regardless of the intensity of the system, the primary
threat associated is flooding rainfall that is expected over
portions of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana over the next
day or two.

The initial motion estimate is 005/6 kt. The cyclone should move
inland very soon, and a general northward motion around the western
side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley should
continue through tonight.  The system is forecast to turn north-
northwestward on Wednesday and that general motion is forecast to
continue until dissipation occurs.  The NHC track forecast follows
the solution of the majority of the dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1700Z 28.7N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  18/0000Z 29.4N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
24H  18/1200Z 30.1N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  19/0000Z 30.7N  95.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  19/1200Z 31.3N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

老農民版夜神月

NHC17/18Z升格TS,命名Imelda

337
WTNT61 KNHC 171745
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...

Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened
as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with
maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean
Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

t02436

NHC只發了三報。

839
WTNT41 KNHC 180248
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Imelda Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The center of the tropical cyclone continues to move farther inland
over southeast Texas, with a motion estimate of 360/5 kt.  Earlier
surface observations along the coast indicated that the intensity
had dropped below tropical storm strength, so the Tropical Storm
Warning was discontinued.

Although it has weakened, slow-moving Imelda will remain a
rainfall/flood threat for at least the next couple of days.

This is the last NHC advisory on Imelda.  Future information on this
system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 29.8N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
12H  18/1200Z 30.5N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
24H  19/0000Z 31.2N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  19/1200Z 31.8N  95.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  20/0000Z 32.7N  95.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch