老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：98 W
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 12 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 16 日 14 時
98W INVEST 190912 0600 22.0N 140.0E WPAC 15 1002

老農民版夜神月

JTWC13/06Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.1N
139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF A MONSOON GYRE. RECENT ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST PORTION OF A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
EVIDENT IN A 130039Z ASCAT-C PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SEVERAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THIS DISTURBANCE, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEPARATE FROM THE BROADER MONSOON
GYRE AND CONSOLIDATE AND OTHERS INDICATING THAT IT WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH STRONGER 25-30 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON GYRE CIRCULATION EVIDENT WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JMA 早上已升格熱帶低壓。

老農民版夜神月

JMA00Z升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 30N 143E NW SLOWLY