老農民版夜神月

  四級颶風  
編號：13 E
名稱：Kiko

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 09 月 10 日 13 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 09 月 13 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 09 月 26 日 19 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速：115  kt
海平面最低氣壓：950 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
90E INVEST 190910 0600 10.8N 102.4W EPAC 20 1009


  NHC：60%  

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作


-巔峰曾達C4 發展超乎預期

霧峰追風者

NHC 展望提升至60%

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於10/0730Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 100730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 101.9W TO 13.9N 110.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 102.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8N 102.4W, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
VALLARTA, MEXICO. CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
CONVECTION WITH LIMITED TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND
TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110730Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至High,70%/90%

1. A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is
located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  This
disturbed weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure
that has become better defined over the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望已再提升至90%/90%,並預計此系統可能於24小時內升格

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to become better defined. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form in the next 24 hours as the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC12/15Z升格90E為TD.13-E,首報預測巔峰上看75節

582
WTPZ43 KNHC 121452
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation
associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest
the system has likely become better organized since the
scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding
features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has
developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from
TAFB/SAB fixes.

The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest
around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next
couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest
movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into
the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next
week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a
weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this
time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move
more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the
model consensus.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a
favorable environment for intensification over the next several
days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model
guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a
tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend.
There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the
cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid
intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For
now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop,
the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model
consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week
as the system moves over cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake

老農民版夜神月

NHC12/21Z判定升格為TS,命名Kiko.預測接下來數日將逐漸西行增強,並於+72小時前後強度達到巔峰75KT

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 122044
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation
and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system.
Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show
increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the
system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt.

The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is
good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the
system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of
a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific.
There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and
consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is
adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model
consensus.  The model trend has been to keep the system moving
faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has
been sped up to become more in line with current consensus
solutions.

Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and
SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to
become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a
more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days,
with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the
SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how
much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit
conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some
weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over
cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake

t02436

底層核心迷你，03Z報直接爆發增強到100節。

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150216
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt
higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane
briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the
eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall
convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance.
The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and
objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt.

There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the
short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of
the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the
shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or
so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength
through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is
quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong
SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast,
it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it
moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also
forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also
become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the
warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show
gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the
intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north
of the latest NHC forecast.

The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a
motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge
should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward
speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between
the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the
ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and
UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such
weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through
mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this
point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of
models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and
remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say,
confidence in the forecast is quite low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky