老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：06 L
名稱：Erin

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 08 月 23 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 08 月 28 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 08 月 30 日 07 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：35 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：1006 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
98L INVEST 190822 1800 24.9N 78.3W ATL 15 1014


  NHC：10%  

1. Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure over the
northwestern Bahamas has become a little better organized since
yesterday.  Additional slow development is possible during the next
several days while the system moves northwestward toward the Florida
peninsula at 5 to 10 mph and then turns northeastward off the
southeastern coast of the United States.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the
southern Florida peninsula during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至30%/60%

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located between the southeastern coast of Florida and
Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas.  The system is producing
a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend
primarily northeast of the center over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.
The low is forecast to move near or over Florida later today, which
should limit development during the next day or so.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves
back over the Atlantic waters, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the low moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeastern
United States coast.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central
Florida during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望已提升至High,70%/90%

1. Surface and radar data, along with satellite imagery, indicate that
the low pressure area just east of the coast of southeastern Florida
is becoming better organized. The low is forecast to move generally
northwestward near or over the eastern Florida peninsula through
tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic
near the east coast of the central Florida peninsula on Saturday.
After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of
the southeastern United States coast. If the current trend
continues, a tropical depression is likely to form by Saturday
night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida
peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

目前的NHC展望概率仍維持70%/90%

1. A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
that extends eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Significant development of the low is unlikely
today while it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida
peninsula. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development once the low moves off the east-central coast of
Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon has been canceled. Another aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

另外補充昨天FWC-N發布的TCFA資料

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 231900
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.2N 79.9W TO 30.2N 81.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.2N 79.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. MIAMI FL AND NASSAU BAHAMAS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE LOW AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE REGION.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241900Z.//

老農民版夜神月

NHC評級High後已經即將進入第70個小時,展望仍然維持在與兩天前相差不遠的80%/80%

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 275 miles south-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a little
better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form later today or Tuesday while
the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the
United States east coast. The reconnaissance aircraft mission for
today has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

98L INVEST 190826 1200 31.5N 72.8W ATL 25 1010

老農民版夜神月

NHC27/2100Z一報終於升格98L為TD.06L

598
WTNT21 KNHC 262037
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019
2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.1N 71.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.9N 71.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.6N 71.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.3N 66.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 47.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

老農民版夜神月

NHC28/03Z一報升格06L為TS,命名Erin

000
WTNT21 KNHC 280238
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062019
0300 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  72.1W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  72.1W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  72.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.1N  72.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.0N  71.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.4N  68.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.7N  65.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N  72.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

老農民版夜神月

升格TS僅半日,NHC28/15Z降格Erin為TD,此系統後續將快速北上

000
WTNT21 KNHC 281435
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062019
1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  72.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  72.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  72.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N  72.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N  70.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.8N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 48.9N  62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N  72.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN