老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：08 E
名稱：Gil

   基本資料   
擾動編號日期：2019 年 08 月 02 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 08 月 04 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 08 月 06 日 05 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速：35  kt
海平面最低氣壓：1006 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
91E INVEST 190801 1800 11.5N 113.5W EPAC 25 1010


  NHC：30%    

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be marginally conducive for
development during the next two to three days, and a tropical
depression could form during that time while the low moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.  After that time, strong
upper-level winds are expected to prevent additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

15Z升格08E，不看好發展

679
WTPZ43 KNHC 031512
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082019
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019

First light visible satellite images indicate that the disturbance
over the open eastern Pacific has developed a well-defined center
just west of an area of concentrated deep convection. Based on this,
advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Eight-E. An
earlier scatterometer pass measured winds of about 30 kt, and this
is the basis for the initial intensity.

Vertical shear of 20-25 kt that is currently displacing convection
off to the east of the low-level center is forecast to continue for
the next few days as the system moves under the base of a mid- to
upper-level trough. This shear is expected to prevent any
strengthening of the cyclone in the near term. In addition to
the shear, the depression will move into a drier airmass and begin
to move over more marginal SSTs in about 24 hours.  This should
result in weakening and the depression is expected to dissipate in a
couple of days.

Although the depression is currently moving west-northwestward at
about 9 kt, all of the global models forecast that it will turn
westward later today, steered primarily by low-level easterly winds.
The cyclone should then continue westward for the next day or two
until it dissipates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 14.7N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  04/0000Z 15.4N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  04/1200Z 15.7N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
36H  05/0000Z 15.9N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH
48H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven/Zelinsky

老農民版夜神月

NHC03/21Z將08E升格為TS,命名Gil

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 032033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Scatterometers are providing plenty of surprises today. ASCAT-B data
at 1716 UTC showed that the cyclone not only still has a
well-defined circulation, but also winds of 30-35 kt northeast of
the low-level center. Given that the instrument likely under sampled
the strongest winds, the initial intensity has been increased to 35
kts, and the system is now designated as Tropical Storm Gil.

Despite the slight increase in winds, the long-term prospects for
Gil have not improved. The tropical storm is strongly sheared due to
an upper-level trough located just to the north, and the GFS and
ECMWF forecast that the shear will remain high during the next few
days. A marginally dry surrounding environment will also likely
limit further strengthening. Given the higher initial winds of Gil,
the new NHC forecast carries the cyclone as a low-end tropical storm
for about a day, before showing gradual weakening. By 72 h, all of
the dynamical guidance indicates that Gil will open into a trough of
low pressure, and many of the models suggest it could happen well
before that.

The initial motion estimate is 285/10 kt. The center position of Gil
was adjusted slightly southward since the last advisory and the
official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. That said, there is
no change in the reasoning behind the forecast, and low-level
easterly flow should cause Gill to move generally westward for the
next couple of days at a steady pace. The official forecast closely
follows TVCE and HCCA until dissipation is expected after 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.0N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 15.5N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.5N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky