老農民版夜神月

  一級颶風  
編號：07 E
名稱：Flossie

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 07 月 26 日 22 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 07 月 29 日 17 時
　　　　　　　2019 年 08 月 03 日 11 時 - CPHC接續發報
撤編日期　　：2019 年 08 月 08 日 07 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)：70 kt
中太平洋颶風中心(CPHC)：50 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：990 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90E INVEST 190726 1200 8.7N 93.5W EPAC 20 1010


  NHC：0%  

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Some
gradual development of the low is expected thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

天篷大元帥

GFS和CMC的電腦模擬(如圖)都顯示可能影響夏威夷州，值得關注的是，歷史上影響夏威夷的熱帶氣旋較少。

至於會不會到西北太平洋，時間還早，這是兩週以後可能會發生的事，現在還沒有找到證據。

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至70%/90%

1. An area of low pressure accompanied by disturbed weather is located
a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  This system has
become better organized since yesterday, and conditions appear
favorable for additional development.  A tropical depression is
expected to form early next week while the system moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

JTWC亦於28/01Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 280100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 100.2W TO 11.6N 110.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 101.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
9.4N 101.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1652 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280002Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
DEPICT A BROAD LLC WITH FLARING CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290100Z.
//
NNNN

t02436

NHC 15Z升格07E，暫時上望90節。

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 281440
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 28 2019

First-light visible satellite images have revealed that the area of
low pressure located southwest of the coast of Mexico has developed
a well-defined center of circulation.  The convective pattern has
also increased in organization, with a pronounced band wrapping from
the west to north of the center.  Dvorak intensity estimates are
T2.0/30 kt from SAB and T1.5/25 kt from TAFB, and advisories are
being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Seven-E is moving quickly along the southern
periphery of mid-level ridging that is centered along the U.S/Mexico
border, and its initial motion estimate is 285/18 kt.  A weakness in
the ridge west of the Baja California peninsula should allow the
cyclone to slow down some after 24 hours, but the trajectory is
expected to be either westward or west-northwestward for the entire
5-day forecast period.  There is very little spread among the track
models, and this initial NHC forecast has generally been placed
between the various multi-model consensus models and the HFIP
Corrected Consensus aid (HCCA).
The convective pattern and upper-level cloud motions suggest that
there's a little bit of shear over the system from the
east-northeast, but that shear should abate over the next 24 hours.
The cyclone will also be over deep warm water, with sea surface
temperatures remaining above 27 degrees Celsius for the entire
forecast period.  As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated,
and the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the IVCN intensity
consensus and close to the HCCA guidance for much of the forecast
period.  The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and it is likely to become a hurricane in 2 to 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 11.2N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 11.8N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  29/1200Z 12.1N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  30/0000Z 12.1N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  30/1200Z 12.0N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  31/1200Z 12.5N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  01/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

老農民版夜神月

NHC29/09Z判定07E升格為TS,命名Flossie

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 290839
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072019
0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.6N 118.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.3N 123.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 134.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

SSD29/06Z,T3.0

TXPZ26 KNES 290624
TCSENP

A.  07E (NONAME)

B.  29/0600Z

C.  13.1N

D.  112.8W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T3.0/3.0/D1.0/6HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND LLC 0.55 ON LOG BASE 10 SPIRAL
AND RESULTS IN DT=2.5. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    29/0446Z 12.8N 112.3W AMSU


...BOLL

20190729   0600    13.1   112.8     T3.0/3.0       07E  NONAME         
20190729   0000    11.9   110.1     T2.0/2.0       07E  NONAME         
20190728   1800    11.7   107.9     T2.0/2.0       07E  NONAME         
20190728   1200    12.1   106.8     T2.0/2.0       90E  90E            

老農民版夜神月

30/21Z,NHC判定升格C1

WTPZ42 KNHC 302035
TCDEP2

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072019
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

Deep convection associated with Flossie has been increasing in both
intensity and coverage during the past several hours, and the
cyclone now consists of a well-organized central dense overcast
with some broken outer bands. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB are now both 4.0/65 kt and, based on this data, Flossie has
been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

Flossie is moving westward at about 12 kt steered by a mid-level
ridge that is situated to the north of the tropical cyclone. This
ridge is expected to be the primary steering feature during the
next several days, and it should cause Flossie to move westward to
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed through the
weekend. The models are tightly clustered, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. This
forecast lies near the consensus aids, which usually have the
lowest track errors.

The cyclone is expected to be in generally favorable environmental
conditions to strengthen during the next day or so. After that
time, however, the sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane
gradually decrease and the wind shear is expected to increase a
little. A combination of these factors should end the strengthening
trend and induce a slow weakening by the weekend. The NHC intensity
forecast is a tad lower than the previous one, but it lies near the
high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA and
IVDR consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 12.7N 123.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 13.4N 125.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.2N 128.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 130.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 16.3N 136.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 18.1N 147.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

31/03Z新報,定強70節

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 310233
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072019
0300 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.6W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 122.6W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 138.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 143.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 148.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 122.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

t02436

03Z已轉交CPHC發報，未來將自夏威夷北方海面通過。

ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP072019
500 PM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

Tropical Storm Flossie has crossed into the Central North Pacific
basin as a messy system. Satellite images indicated limited deep
convection displaced northeast of the partially exposed low level
circulation center. Dvorak intensity estimates came in at 3.0/45 kt
from PFHO, JTWC, and SAB, and the CIMSS ADT value at 3/0000 UTC was
3.3/51 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, and the poor
appearance in satellite imagery, the initial intensity for this
advisory has been lowered to 50 kt.

There is no change to the forecast track plan. Flossie continues to
move west-northwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge
to the north of the cyclone. This direction of motion is expected to
continue over the next 48 hours but with a slightly slower forward
speed. Large-scale models indicate that the ridge will weaken as an
upper level trough approaches from the northwest. This should turn
Flossie toward a northwestward, and then northward track beyond the
48 hour time frame. All of the models are in general agreement with
this scenario, though HWRF and HMON indicate less of a turn and are
thus on the southern side of the guidance envelope. The forecast for
this advisory is right on the previous forecast through 24 hours,
then nudged slightly south of the previous track from 36 hours and
beyond to line up more closely with the TVCN and HCCA consensus.

Flossie is expected to traverse over marginal sea surface
temperatures through the forecast period. Furthermore, vertical
shear is expected to increase to above 30 knots after 48 hours in
the ECMWF SHIPS guidance. Given these factors, the model intensity
guidance shows continued weakening through the forecast period. The
current forecast is close to the IVCN and HCCA guidance, and makes
Flossie a tropical depression after 48 hours to the east of the main
Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.9N 141.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  03/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  04/0000Z 19.0N 145.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  04/1200Z 19.4N 147.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  05/0000Z 19.9N 150.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  06/0000Z 22.4N 154.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  07/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 31.0N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kodama

NNNN

t02436

目前正通過夏威夷北方近海，CPHC於03Z發布FW。

ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Discussion Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP072019
500 PM HST Mon Aug 05 2019

Vigorous deep convection has been persistent through much of the day
to the northeast of the cloud system center, which has become
significantly elongated and poorly defined by several outflow
boundaries. Recent analyses of satellite cloud drift winds suggest
that the highly elongated cloud system center is lacking westerly
winds that define a closed area of low pressure, and subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates were 25 kt from HFO and SAB,
while JTWC deemed the system too weak to classify. Given these
inputs and the presence of continued vertical wind shear of more
than 30 kt, Flossie will be designated a post-tropical remnant low.
The intensity will remain 30 kt, since an ASCAT-C pass earlier in
the day detected winds this strong within the deep convection. While
the cloud system center could arguably be a trough, a mean center
location gives an initial motion of 300/10 kt.

Under relentless vertical wind shear, the remnant low will continue
to degenerate as it passes near the main Hawaiian Islands. The
westerly vertical wind shear will be maintained by a deep
upper-level trough parked northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This
upper trough is also eroding the low- to mid-level ridge that is
steering Flossie. As a result, the remnant low will gradually turn
toward the northwest tonight, then shift toward the north-northwest
until dissipation on Wednesday. The track forecast was nudged to the
right from the prior advisory and is near TVCN. All guidance shows
weakening or little change in intensity until dissipation.

This is the last advisory on Flossie. Additional information on this
system can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and
WMO header FZPN40 PHFO. Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands
should refer to products issued by the National Weather Service in
Honolulu for information on flooding and surf impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 20.8N 154.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  06/1200Z 22.1N 155.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  07/0000Z 24.0N 156.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  07/1200Z 26.0N 157.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe

NNNN