老農民版夜神月

  四級颶風  
編號：06 E
名稱：Erick

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 07 月 26 日 18 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 07 月 28 日 11 時
　　　　　　　2019 年 07 月 30 日 14 時 - 轉交CPHC發報
撤編日期　　：2019 年 08 月 08 日 01 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)：65 kt
中太平洋颶風中心(CPHC)：115 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：952 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
99E INVEST 190726 1200 10.0N 115.9W EPAC 20 NA


  NHC：30%  

1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little more organized since yesterday.
Although there are no signs of a surface circulation at this time,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form early next week. The disturbance is expected to move
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至60%/80%;JTWC於27/0430Z發布TCFA

1. Shower activity associated with an area of disturbed weather located
a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has become better organized since
yesterday.  Environmental conditions are favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
form by early next week.  This system is expected to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

WTPN21 PHNC 270430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 118.5W TO 12.9N 129.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
270400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N
120.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.6N 120.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1325NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 270014Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
CENTER WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. SST VALUES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 28-29C. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280430Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC28/15Z升格TD.06E,將一路西行至中太平洋海面,並看好強度能在三到四天後發展至一級颶風

WTPZ41 KNHC 271433
TCDEP1
Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking for
several days across the eastern Pacific has developed enough
organized convection near the center of circulation, and is now
classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. This is supported by
T2.0 Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is embedded within a good environment for
intensification of low shear and high SSTs. Despite the environment,
most of the models show only a very modest strengthening. The NHC
forecast is a little more aggressive than the models and is above
the intensity consensus. The depression is anticipated to become a
tropical storm later today and reach hurricane status by the end of
the forecast period.

The depression is well embedded within the deep easterly flow south
of a subtropical ridge and is moving westward at 16 kt. Since this
steering flow pattern is not forecast to change much, the cyclone
should continue on a general west or west-northwest track through
the next 5 days, perhaps with a small decrease in forward speed. The
NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
very near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 11.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

老農民版夜神月

NHC28/03Z升格06E為TS,命名Erick,巔峰上望75KT

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 280232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0300 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 126.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

霧峰追風者

強度升一級颶風，即將進入中太。

06E ERICK 190730 0000 12.6N 139.3W EPAC 65 990

老農民版夜神月

NHC30/03Z一報定強正式升格一級颶風,目前預測巔峰時間為36H~48H,強度上看95KT

WTPZ41 KNHC 300240
TCDEP1

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Erick has finally become a hurricane. Microwave and visible data
indicate that a ragged eye is present, and deep convection has been
increasing near the center. All of the satellite agencies agree on
an initial intensity of 65 kt, so that will be the advisory wind
speed. The environment is expected to generally be conducive for
continued intensification during the next 36-48 hours, and Erick
could still attain major hurricane status during that time.
Thereafter, a significant increase in shear is predicted by almost
all of the guidance. This is a strong signal for rapid weakening in
the 2-3 day time frame, and the official forecast follows suit,
showing a more rapid weakening than the previous advisory.

The hurricane has been moving faster to the west recently, but a
longer-term motion is 280/16. The mid-level ridge to the north
is still forecast to weaken tomorrow but stay in place, causing a
slower west-northwestward track. Track guidance is more divergent
tonight with the ECMWF and its ensemble considerably faster than
the rest of the models. It is notable, however, that the models
have been doing a rather poor job on the track as they all have been
biased too slow and poleward during the past couple of days. Thus,
the new forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous
one, on the western side of the model consensus, but is still
behind the ECMWF guidance for forecast continuity.

This is the last NHC advisory on Erick since the hurricane is
crossing 140W and moving into the central Pacific basin. Future
information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST,
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 12.7N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

TXPZ25 KNES 300028
TCSENP

A. 06E (ERICK)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 12.7N

D. 139.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 10.5/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=4.0 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1901Z 12.2N 138.1W AMSU


...FISHER

t02436

15Z直接評價100節，站上MH。

000
WTPA41 PHFO 301503
TCDCP1

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 AM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

The eye of hurricane became much more distinct in infrared
satellite imagery overnight, which indicates that rapid
intensification has occurred. The latest intensity estimates
from the satellite agencies are 5.0 (90 kt) from SAB, 5.5 (102 kt)
from HFO, and 6.0 (115 kt) from JTWC. The  CIMSS ADT estimate using
the raw T number suggests the intensity is close to 100 kt. For this
advisory, we are intensifying Erick to 100 kt, so it is now a major
hurricane. Note that the initial wind radii for this advisory were
adjusted based on a 0633Z ASCAT pass, which covered nearly the
entire circulation of Erick.

The hurricane's initial motion is 280/15 kt for this advisory. The
mid-level ridge to the north is still forecast to weaken later
today, which is expected to cause a slower forward motion toward the
west-northwest. The track guidance now appears to have somewhat less
spread. The latest ECMWF and its ensemble mean continue to be
slightly faster than the rest of the models. For this advisory, we
are more closely following the latest NOAA corrected consensus
(HCCA) output. As a result, the track has been nudged slightly to
the right of the previous forecast during the 12-48 hour time frame.
After that, the latest track forecast follows the previous forecast
during days 3-5.

The latest estimates for wind shear in the vicinity of Erick appear
to be less than 10 kt from the west. In addition, sea surface
temperatures remain close to 28C along the track for the next couple
of days, and the CIRA Ocean Heat Content values show sufficient warm
water at depth along the forecast track. Therefore, the environment
around Erick will likely remain conducive for additional
intensification during the next 12-24 hours. The current forecast
closely follows the HCCA, as well as the consensus intensity
forecast output, IVCN. Some gradual weakening is forecast to begin
starting around 36 hours, and continuing through 48 hours. After
that time, the circulation around a broad upper-level trough in the
vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands will likely cause a significant
increase in shear (at least 25 kt from the west) as Erick continues
to move toward the west-northwest. Therefore, this advisory
continues to show rapid weakening during the 2-3 day time frame.
This weakening trend will likely persist during days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 13.4N 142.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  31/0000Z 14.0N 144.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  31/1200Z 14.8N 146.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  01/0000Z 15.4N 148.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  01/1200Z 15.9N 150.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  02/1200Z 16.6N 155.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  03/1200Z 17.5N 160.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 19.0N 164.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

t02436

21Z站上C4，評價115節，03Z維持115節評價，之後將受環境影響快速減弱。

000
WTPA41 PHFO 310254
TCDCP1

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number  15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062019
500 PM HST Tue Jul 30 2019

The rapid intensification of Erick has waned this afternoon, but
it still remains a powerful category 4 hurricane. Satellite images
show that the eye has become cloud-filled and elongated since the
last advisory, with outflow somewhat restricted in the southwestern
semicircle. On the other hand, outflow in the northeastern
semicircle appears optimal, and the eyewall convection has been a
prolific lightning producer through the day. Subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates range from 6.0/115 kt from SAB/PHFO to
6.5/127 kt from PGTW, while ADT is also now near 6.0. The initial
intensity estimate for this advisory has been held at 115 kt.

A gradual turn toward the west-northwest has taken place today, and
the initial motion estimate for this advisory is 290/13 kt. There
is not much change to the ongoing track forecast philosophy, and
only minor changes were made to the official forecast, despite
increasing model spread in the later forecast periods. A track
toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours or so,
with a subtle turn toward the west on days 2 and 3, before a turn
back to the west-northwest occurs on days 4 and 5. Initially, the
strong hurricane will be steered by the deep-layer flow, with
southwest winds in the upper levels helping Erick to gain latitude.
As these winds shear the cyclone, it is expected to become
increasingly shallow, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the
north, which will induce the westward track. As the weakened cyclone
reaches the western edge of the ridge on days 4 and 5, it is
expected to resume a motion toward the west-northwest, but forecast
models disagree as to the extent of the poleward motion. The
official forecast lies closest to HCCA guidance, with the 5 day
forecast point almost on top of the UKMET ensemble guidance.

The window for further intensification appears to be closing, as
increased vertical wind shear (20 kt increasing to 40 kt) lies
along the forecast track, especially after about 24 hours. Once
Erick encounters this southwesterly to westerly shear, associated
with a semi-permanent trough aloft northwest of Hawaii, significant
weakening is expected. In the meantime, Erick is expected to change
little, but it wouldn't be surprising to see the eye clear out again
overnight. The updated intensity forecast closely follows HCCA and
FSSE guidance.

An 1845Z partial ASCAT pass was used to expand 34 kt wind radii,
mainly in the northern semicircle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 14.0N 145.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  31/1200Z 14.5N 147.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 15.1N 149.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  01/1200Z 15.6N 151.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  02/0000Z 16.1N 154.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  03/0000Z 17.1N 158.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  04/0000Z 18.6N 163.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 20.0N 166.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard