老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：05 E
名稱：Dalila

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 07 月 15 日 22 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 07 月 23 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 07 月 26 日 19 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：40 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：1005 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
97E INVEST 190715 1200 9.1N 86.2W EPAC 20 1008


  NHC：0%  

1. A westward-moving tropical wave has emerged off the coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua this morning. An area of low pressure is likely
to form in association with this disturbance during the next few
days several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
by late week and over the weekend while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC 展望提升至40%/80%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next few days as it moves west-northwestward away from the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch

老農民版夜神月

JTWC21/0100Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 210100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 114.2W TO 14.8N 115.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 114.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
114.4W, APPROXIMATELY 456 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH
POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A 202244Z
SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC WITH A LARGE ARC OF POTENTIAL BANDING TO
THE NORTH. 97E IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (27
TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL (15
TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220100Z.//
NNNN

NHC 展望提升至90%/90%

1. Satellite imagery indicates that a low pressure system located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Thunderstorm activity has been steadily increasing and becoming
better organized, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is
expected to form during the next day or so. The disturbance is
forecast to move generally northwestward at around 10 mph, remaining
well offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

天篷大元帥

美國國家颶風中心：熱帶性低氣壓；看好發展到熱帶風暴，認為未來三十六小時是最後發展機會。

以下來源：美國國家颶風中心。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 220836
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The area of disturbed weather and low pressure system located about
600 nmi southwest of Baja California Sur that the NHC has been
monitoring for the past several days has finally developed a
sufficient inner-core wind field and enough organized deep
convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on two ASCAT passes between
0430-0530Z that showed 30-31 kt wind vectors in the western
quadrant, which corresponds well with the latest TAFB Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 360/08 kt due to the
lack of a well-defined center until recently. However, the NHC model
guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone moving
northward for the next 36-48 hours around the eastern periphery of a
broad mid-level low/trough located to the west of the depression. By
72 h and continuing through 120 h, the cyclone is forecast to move
northwestward as a weakening remnant low pressure system. The NHC
forecast track lies close to a blend of the various consensus
models, and is about midway between the GFS and ECMWF model
solutions that bound on the eastern and western fringes,
respectively, of the track guidance envelope.

Modest north to northeasterly vertical wind shear and occasional
intrusions of dry air are expected to hinder development and
strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2 and
especially by day 3, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C
sea-surface temperatures, which will induce at least steady
weakening despite decreasing vertical wind shear conditions during
that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to but
slightly higher higher than the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus
models, with the latter guidance calling for no strengthening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 15.0N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

上為報文原文，下為機器翻譯(機器翻譯僅供參考，實際以原文為主。)

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 220836
TCDEP5

熱帶低氣壓五維討論第1號
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
2019年1月20日星期一2019年1月22日

受干擾的天氣和低壓系統的區域位於
NHC一直在南下加利福尼亞州南部600海裡
過去幾天的監控終於發展了
足夠的內核風場和足夠有組織的深度
對流被歸類為熱帶氣旋。最初的
基於兩次ASCAT傳遞，強度設定為30 kt
0430-0530Z在西部顯示30-31 kt風向量
象限，與最新的TAFB Dvorak完全吻合
TAFB的衛星強度估計值為T2.0 / 30 kt。

最初的運動估計是不確定的360/08 kt由於
直到最近才缺乏一個明確的中心。但是，NHC模型
關於颶風移動的指導意見非常好
在東部周邊的北部，接下來的36-48小時
位於窪地西部的廣泛的中層低谷/低谷。通過
72小時並持續120小時，預計旋風將會移動
西北方向作為一個弱化的殘餘低壓系統。NHC
預測軌跡接近於各種共識的混合
模型，大約介於GFS和ECMWF模型之間
東西方邊緣的解決方案，
分別是軌道引導包絡線。

適度的北向東北垂直風切變和偶爾
乾燥空氣的入侵預計將阻礙發展和
在接下來的48小時左右加強。到第2天晚些時候
特別是到第3天，旋風將在26攝氏度以下移動
海面溫度，至少會導致穩定
儘管降低了垂直風切變條件，但在
那時。官方強度預測類似於但是
略高於IVCN和HCCA強度共識
模型，後者的指導要求不加強。

預測位置和最大風

INIT 22 / 0900Z 15.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22 / 1800Z 16.3N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23 / 0600Z 17.9N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23 / 1800Z 19.2N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24 / 0600Z 20.4N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25 / 0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH ... POST-TROP / REMNT LOW
96H 26 / 0600Z 23.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH ... POST-TROP / REMNT LOW
120H 27 / 0600Z 24.6N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH ... POST-TROP / REMNT LOW

$$
預報員斯圖爾特

天篷大元帥

美國國家颶風中心：熱帶風暴；不看好繼續增強，十二小時後開始減弱。以下來源：美國國家颶風中心。

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Deep convection has become stronger and closer to the center of the
cyclone during the past several hours.  While the circulation is
still elongated, it has become better defined, with the latest ASCAT
pass at 0440 UTC showing 30-35 kt winds in the southern quadrant.
Since TAFB, ADT and SATCON have the current intensity as a tropical
storm, plus the recent increase in organization, the current wind
speed has been set to 35 kt.

Dalila is probably near peak intensity. Since SSTs drop off later
today, along with a continuation of moderate northerly shear,
weakening should begin on Wednesday.  In a couple of days, SSTs near
24C, dry air aloft, and a more stable atmosphere should contribute
to Dalila losing deep convection, thus becoming a remnant low. This
is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the latest NHC
intensity prediction is close to the previous one.

The cyclone has been moving erratically at 330/6 due to the center
trying to reform near the strong convection to the south.  A
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should provide
similar steering during the next day or so, causing a motion
generally toward the northwest by Wednesday.  As Dalila weakens, it
will likely turn more to the west-northwest on Thursday within the
low-level flow.  Similar to the past few cycles, model guidance is
continuing to shift westward, and the official forecast follows that
trend, not terribly far from the eastern Pacific track consensus
model TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 18.0N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 18.8N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/0600Z 22.3N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

上為報文原文，下為機器翻譯(機器翻譯僅供參考，實際以原文為主。)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

熱帶風暴達利拉討論第5號
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
太平洋夏令時間上午200點，2019年7月23日

深對流變得更強，更接近中心
在過去的幾個小時裡颶風。雖然流通是
使用最新的ASCAT，它已經變得更加明確
在0440 UTC通過，在南部象限顯示30-35節克拉的風。
由於TAFB，ADT和SATCON具有熱帶電流強度
風暴，加上近期組織的增加，目前的風
速度已設定為35克拉。

達利拉可能接近峰值強度。由於SST後來會下降
今天，伴隨著持續的中等偏北剪切，
削弱應該在周三開始。在幾天內，SST附近
24C，高空的干燥空氣和更穩定的氣氛應該有所貢獻
達利拉失去了深層對流，從而成為殘餘的低潮。這個
是大部分指導和最新的NHC提供的解決方案
強度預測接近前一個。

由於該中心，旋風一直在330/6不穩定地移動
試圖在強大的對流附近改革到南方。一個
美國西南部的中層山脊應該提供
在第二天左右類似的轉向，引起一個動作
週三一般向西北方向。當達利拉減弱時，它
將於週四內更多地轉向西北偏西
低水平流動。與過去的幾個週期類似，模型指導是
繼續向西轉移，官方預測也隨之而來
趨勢，遠不是東太平洋軌道的共識
模特TVCE。

預測位置和最大風

INIT 23 / 0900Z 18.0N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23 / 1800Z 18.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24 / 0600Z 19.8N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24 / 1800Z 20.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25 / 0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH ... POST-TROP / REMNT LOW
72H 26 / 0600Z 22.3N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH ... POST-TROP / REMNT LOW
96H 27 / 0600Z ......已經過時了

$$
預報員Blake

老農民版夜神月

NHC於23/09Z判定升格為Tropical Storm(TS),並命名為DALILA

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 230835
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  80SE  80SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 117.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE