(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N
137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 270016Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS WEAK TURNING
WITH 10KTS TO THE SOUTH AND 15KT WINDS TO THE NORTH. 95W IS UNDER
WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 C) FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 95W INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAINING WEAK AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 137.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 133.5E, APPROXIMATELY
745 NM EAST OF MANILA, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272054Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-
31 C) ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, SHOWING 95W INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
提升卡
千斤頂
