霧峰追風者

  中度熱帶風暴  
編號：06-20182019 ( 10 S )
名稱：Desmond

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 01 月 17 日 17 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 01 月 20 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 01 月 20 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 01 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：莫三比克

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR )：35 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：995 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
92S.INVEST.20kts-1006mb-23.3S-35.7E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

jrchang5

JTWC於1718Z評級Low。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.7S 34.6E, APPROXIMATELY 78 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAXIXE,
MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INRAFRED IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED,
BUT WELL-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER LAND WITH MINIMAL, FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE LLC, AND A BALL
OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 171401Z MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. 92S IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MARGINAL (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND LAND INTERACTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD CROSSING OVERSEA WHERE
IT WILL BE IN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW THAT 92S WILL LIKELY TURN BACK INTO LAND AFTER
ONLY A FEW DAYS, CREATING A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY, COOLER
AIR TO BE BROUGHT EQUATORWARD INTO 92S, INHIBITING ITS POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

jrchang5

MFR於01181200Z開始發報，已編號熱帶擾動第6號，預計將發展為中度熱帶風暴，巔峰強度暫時上望40kts。

WTIO31 FMEE 181258
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/6/20182019
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 6
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 36.0 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST 5 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 90 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/01/2019 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 19/01/2019 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
36H: 20/01/2019 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
48H: 20/01/2019 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
60H: 21/01/2019 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
72H: 21/01/2019 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
ASSOCIE A UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSEZ MARQUEE MAIS FLUCTUANTE SUR
MER, LE MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE, INITIALEMENT SUIVI DEPUIS QUELQUES
JOURS SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE, S'EST DECALE SUR MER D'APRES LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 0425UTC DE CE MATIN. CE SYSTEME EST MAINTENANT
SUIVI EN TANT QUE PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06S, SANS QU'UNE ESTIMATION
DVORAK NE PUISSE ETRE FAITE POUR LE MOMENT. LES ESTIMATIONS
SATELLITAIRES DE VENT FOURNISSENT DES VENTS MAXIMUMS DE L'ORDRE DE
25KT. AVEC UN CENTRE ESTIME A PRES DE 40KM DES COTES, L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE LA PLUS FORTE SE SITUE DANS LE SECTEUR EST, ASSEZ LONG DU
CENTRE.
SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE QUI CIRCULE AU SUD DE L'AFRIQUE,
LA PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06S SE TROUVE D'ABORD DANS UNE ZONE DE
FAIBLE FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA PERTURBATION SE DEPLACE ALORS PEU AU COURS
DE LA JOURNEE DE SAMEDI AVANT D'ETRE POUSSEE PAR LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI ORIENTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD EN
COURS DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE. CETTE NETTE ACCELERATION CONDUIT LE
SYSTEME A ATTERRIR SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES EN COURS DE SOIREE DE
DIMANCHE.
SITUEE POUR LE MOMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAIBLEMENT CISAILLE, LA
PERTURBATION VA RESTER DANS DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A SON
INTENSIFICATION PROGRESSIVE. AVEC L'AUGMENTATION DU FLUX SUR LE COTE
POLAIRE, LE MAINTIEN D'UN FLUX DE MOUSSON DESCENDANT DU CANAL ET UN
FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI COMPOSE UNE ABSENCE DE DEPLACEMENT AUX
PREMIERES ECHEANCES, LA PERTURBATION DEVRAIT VOIR SON INTENSITE
AUGMENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 48H AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.7S 34.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 36.7E, APPROXIMATELY 160
NM SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. A 181349Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EMPHASIZES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TURNING. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AND TRACKS NORTHWARD BEFORE LAND
INTERACTION LIMITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5

JTWC於01190400Z發布TCFA。

WTXS21 PGTW 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 165 NM RADIUS OF 22.2S 38.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 37.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.8S 36.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 37.0E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL (UL) ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS (5-15KTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER
BUT INCREASING SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST. VWS IS OFFSET BY
STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO DEFINED POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C)
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TAKES A MEANDERING NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200400Z.//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC於01200300Z發報升格為Tropical Cyclone 10S。

WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
190351ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 38.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 38.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.3S 38.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 18.9S 37.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 17.9S 37.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 16.8S 35.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION AND
SHALLOW BANDING EQUATORWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON BANDING FEATURES IN A 192301Z
AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED
ON A PARTIAL 191932Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A LARGE REGION
OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 10S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGH TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN THE STR AND ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LIMITING THE FORWARD SPEED AND ALLOWING
FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO NO LONGER ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL.  AS A RESULT, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HAMPERED AND
TC 10S SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS IT ROUNDS THE STR ON A
NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AROUND TAU 48, TC 10S IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72
AS IT MOVES INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36.
THIS SPREAD MAY BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STR WEAKENING, AN
APPROACHING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHEAST, AND DIFFICULTY
TRACKING THE CIRCULATION AS TC 10S WEAKENS. BASED ON THE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 36, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190400).//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z率先升格熱帶氣旋10S，巔峰上望55kts。

WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
190351ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 38.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 38.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.3S 38.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 18.9S 37.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 17.9S 37.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 16.8S 35.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION AND
SHALLOW BANDING EQUATORWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON BANDING FEATURES IN A 192301Z
AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED
ON A PARTIAL 191932Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A LARGE REGION
OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 10S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGH TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN THE STR AND ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LIMITING THE FORWARD SPEED AND ALLOWING
FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO NO LONGER ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL.  AS A RESULT, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HAMPERED AND
TC 10S SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS IT ROUNDS THE STR ON A
NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AROUND TAU 48, TC 10S IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72
AS IT MOVES INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36.
THIS SPREAD MAY BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STR WEAKENING, AN
APPROACHING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHEAST, AND DIFFICULTY
TRACKING THE CIRCULATION AS TC 10S WEAKENS. BASED ON THE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 36, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190400).//
NNNN

jrchang5

MFR於01200600Z升格為熱帶低壓，預計將繼續發展為中度熱帶風暴。

WTIO31 FMEE 200805
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYST ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/6/20182019 1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 6
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.6 S / 38.8 E (VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD 5 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 280 NO: 240
34 KT NE: SE: SO: 280 NO: 190
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 20/01/2019 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 21/01/2019 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 21/01/2019 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 22/01/2019 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 60H: 22/01/2019 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE: NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
DURANT LA NUIT, LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT RENFORCEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, ALIMENTEE PAR L'ARRIVEE D'UNE PUISSANTE DE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE SUD-OUEST. CE QUI PROVOQUE UNE FORTE DISSYMÉTRIE DU SYSTEME AVEC DES VENTS FORTS DE L'ORDRE DE 35/40KT LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST PAR EFFET DE GRADIANT.
LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS 0359Z MONTRENT UN NET
RENFORCEMENT DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES, CE QUE CONFIRME LES VENTS ENREGISTRÉS SUR L'ILE D'EUROPA (25KT À 06Z), CE QUI PLAIDE MAINTENANT POUR UNE ANALYSE EN DT.LE CENTRE EST ENCORE POSITIONNE EN BORDURE NORD-EST DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE.
UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLISSANT ET DES CONDITIONS OCEANIQUES PLUTOT FAVORABLES DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION.
SOUS LA POUSSE DE LA PUISSANTE DE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU REMONTER EN DIRECTION DU NORD-NORD-OUEST, ET EFFECTUER UN ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA REGION DE QUELIMANE . LES MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN ACCORD AVEC CETTE PREVISION. MAIS IL RESTE ENCORE UNE GRANDE VARIABILITE DANS LES VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT, LA PREVISIBILITE DU TIMING RESTE FAIBLE.
NEANMOINS ON PEUT DEJA PREVOIR UNE DEGRADATION IMPORTANTE DU TEMPS POUR LES ZONES COTIERES DU MOZAMBIQUE:
VENTS FORTS ACCOMPAGNES D'UN TEMPS A GRAINS MARQUES VONT GAGNER LA REGION ENTRE INHAMBANE ET BEIRA DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS S'ETENDRE LE LONG DE LA COTE AU NORD DE BEIRA LUNDI.

Bulletin du 20 janvier à 09H48 locales Réunion:
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20182019.
Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 85 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 998 hPa.
Position le 20 janvier à 10 heures locales Réunion: 22.6 Sud / 38.8 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1700 km au secteur: OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 1280 km au secteur: SUD-SUD-OUEST
Déplacement: NORD, à 9 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le Bulletin d'Activité Cyclonique (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.