簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2018-9-9 08:46
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JTWC發布TCFA
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 22.2N 122.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.0N 120.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.1E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
ABOVE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN
ADDITION, A 081653Z 88.2GHZ ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE,
FRAGMENTARY BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM STAYING
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP, THEN HEADING WESTWARD TOWARDS HAINAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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