(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.6N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060149Z 89GHZ MHS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL POCKETS
OF SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION. A 060110Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE
PHILIPPINES BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT AFTER THE SYSTEM
EMERGES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA IT WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD AND
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 120.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY
414 NM SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 071721Z GPM
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONSOLIDATING, ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. A 071336Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLC AS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED WITH A SMALL PATCH
OF 20 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED THE FORMATIVE BANDING. CURRENTLY, 90W
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS WITH WEAK OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN INTO AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.