霧峰追風者

  輕度颱風  
編號：1816 ( 20 W )
名稱：貝碧佳 ( Bebinca )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 08 月 04 日 02 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 08 月 10 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 08 月 13 日 09 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 08 月 17 日 15 時
登陸地點　　：中國 廣東省 雷州市
　　　　　　　越南

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：25 m/s ( 10 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：25 m/s ( 50 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：28 m/s ( STS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：60 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：985 百帕
七級風半徑　　：100 公里
十級風半徑　　：---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
96W.INVEST.15kts-1005mb-12.4N-118.6E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 23Z評級Low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD
LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH. A 032003Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP BUT SMALL POCKETS OF CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE TRACKS FOR
THIS SYSTEM. MOST MODELS FAVOR A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE INVEST 96W MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST, ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, AND INTENSIFYING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONTINUING ON A EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

傳奇@天氣人

霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-8-4 08:14
JTWC 23Z評級Low

這隻會靠近南部嗎？

孫悟空在妳頭上

傳奇@天氣人 發表於 2018-8-5 00:31
這隻會靠近南部嗎？

歐洲中期天氣預報中心數值預報會前往海南島，經北部灣後從中國大陸和越南間登陸，而全球預報系統數值預報會前往台灣西南方海面
8/11歐洲中期(經加工)



8/10全球預報(經加工)

dog327

目前預測來看是偏向西北方向行進

發展的狀況仍須觀察

周子堯@FB

風速稍微增強，但這風場...
目前垂直風切稍強(中心超裸)，預估到了16N以北區域才風切才有機會減弱。
而後期的走向要往東、向西還是要視副高西伸狀況而定...

傳奇@天氣人

96w有可能接近南台灣

霧峰追風者

JTWC 11Z評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 113.9E, APPROXIMATELY
425NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD TURNING WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. A 080958Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE
EXPOSED LLC WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT DIFFER ON IF THE OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY INTO A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.