霧峰追風者

  強烈颱風  
編號：1808 ( 10 W )
名稱：瑪莉亞 ( Maria )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 06 月 26 日 03 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 07 月 03 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 07 月 04 日 20 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 07 月 12 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：中國 福建省 黃岐半島
颱風警報總計：海上警報 17 報
　　　　　　　陸上警報 14 報

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：55 m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：55 m/s ( 105 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：60 m/s ( STY )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：140 kts ( Cat.5 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：915 百帕
七級風半徑　　：280 公里
十級風半徑　　：100 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
91W.INVEST.15kts-1004mb-10.0N-170.0E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 20Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.3N 165.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK EXPOSED
LLCC DISPLACED FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION BY SHEAR. A 271729Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ESE OF A TUTT CELL, ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-30
KNOTS) WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING MUCH DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH SOME DO
MAINTAIN A CLOSED OFF CIRCULATION AT TIMES, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

EC和GFS數值都開始支持發展，EC路徑預測接近巴士海峽，GFS則是接近台灣北部海域。

Typhoon

霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-7-1 19:11
EC和GFS數值都開始支持發展，EC路徑預測接近巴士海峽，GFS則是接近台灣北部海域。

霧峰追風者大大你是否可以提供給我你目前所上傳的這兩張預測圖表網址呢

jrchang5

EC之系集圖各成員的路徑模擬仍未收束，顯示後續路徑仍存有相當大的變數。

王子又

巴比侖颱風末期與太平壓高壓的互動將決定未來一周熱帶擾動的可能動向，目前三大數值模式對此一影響有明顯分歧。

jrchang5

EC最新一報。繼續觀察後續變化。

颱風熱愛者

評級提升至 MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY
277 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 012028Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN
ELONGATED, FORMATIVE LLCC. A 011101Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 15
KNOT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 18N 160E,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW VIGOROUS EASTERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH MAY FUEL
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND TRACKS NEAR THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.