(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N
134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF
FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
A 310042Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS PRIMARILY 15 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME
20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. A 310040Z MHS
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST WITH DEEPENING POCKETS NOT
YET WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT TIME OF
INTENSIFICATION, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THEIR
SOLUTION. ECMWF SHOWS AN ALTERNATE TRACK SOLUTION, MOVING THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
WTPN21 PGTW 010230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 115.8E TO 12.6N 112.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 115.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 116.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 115.7E, APPROXIMATELY 210
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LLCC. VWS REMAINS LOW (10-15 KTS) AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS.
SSTS REMAIN WARM (29-30C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT 99W WILL ASSUME A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NOW DEVELOPING WITHIN 24 HOURS,
WITH THE UKMO AND JGSM DISSENTING AND NOT DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020230Z.//
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