zjk369

  輕度颱風  
編號：1802 ( 02 W )
名稱：三巴 ( Sanba )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 02 月 05 日 06 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 02 月 08 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 02 月 11 日 14 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 02 月 14 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：菲律賓 民答那峨

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：18 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：35 kts ( TS )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：998 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 80  公里
十級風半徑　　： --   公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
93W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.3N.163E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

周子堯@FB

JTWC 06z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 914 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED FLARING
CONVECTION AND BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING. A 060440Z SSMI 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AND NO LOWER LEVEL
STRUCTURE IS INDICATED. A 052223Z ASCAT PASS RETURNED MOSTLY 10 KNOT
WINDS, WITH AN AREA OF 15 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK, WIDESPREAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. NAVGEM
AND GFS PREDICT 93W WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN IN THE
LATER TAUS, WHILE UKMET AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION TO THE
PHILIPPINES BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

評級已提升至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 155.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 447
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
062042Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND FLARING
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
AREA OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPEMET OF 93W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 93W WILL TRACK TO THE WEST, BUT VARY ON THE SPEED AND RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

有兩個疑似中心，JTWC也許會重新定位

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z發佈"TCFA"，逐漸西移。

WTPN21 PGTW 072230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 151.6E TO 10.1N 144.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 072100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 151.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 149.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 520
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
COVERED BY CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO PERSIST AND WRAP IN. A
072001Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. A 071043Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS AND HIGHER WINDS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE, BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 93W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK TO THE WEST.
GFS AND NAVGEM PREDICT 93W WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY; HOWEVER, UKMET AND
ECMWF FAVOR ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE CIRCULATION
PROPAGATES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082230Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

JMA 09時升格"熱帶低壓"

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 151E WNW SLOWLY.

霧峰追風者

ＪＴＷＣ　１８Ｚ升格０２Ｗ，中心風速只有２０ｋｔｓ，大約還要再整合２天才會達ＴＳ。

霧峰追風者

JMA 發佈GW，有機會成為颱風，JTWC 18Z風速已經達到45KTS。

熱帯低気圧
平成30年02月11日04時25分 発表

<11日03時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 6度50分(6.8度)
東経 139度00分(139.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<11日15時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 7度35分(7.6度)
東経 136度05分(136.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<12日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 8度05分(8.1度)
東経 133度40分(133.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)