1. A small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south
of southeastern Mexico is accompanied by disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development over the next few days while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward or westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have shown some signs of
organization today. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some additional development over the next couple of
days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
1. An area of low pressure located just south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is continuing to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Satellite imagery indicates that the low-level
circulation associated with this system has become better defined
during the day today. Although the environment is not expected to
support significant development for the next few days, only a small
increase in the organization of shower and thunderstorm activity
would result in the formation of a tropical depression while the
system moves slowly toward the west or west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017
The small low pressure area located just south of the coast of
southern Mexico has been producing persistent convection for about
12 hours. Although the convection is confined to the western
portion of the circulation due to strong easterly shear, it has
enough organization for the system to be classify as a tropical
cyclone. Scatterometer data from 0410 UTC revealed a small area
of 35-40 kt winds to the west of the center, so advisories are
being initiated on a 40-kt tropical storm, the seventeenth tropical
storm of the 2017 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Strong
easterly shear is forecast to persist over Ramon during the next
during the next few days, which is likely to prevent strengthening
of the small tropical storm. The ECMWF and GFS weaken the cyclone
over the next day or so, although both models show some interaction
with another disturbance farther west in a couple of days. The NHC
forecast is of low confidence and calls for no change in strength
throughout the forecast period. An alternate scenario is for Ramon
to move closer to the coast of Mexico and dissipate within the next
2-3 days.
Ramon is moving westward or 270/8 kt to the south of a deep layer
ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to
build westward over northern Mexico during the next few days, which
should cause Ramon to move westward at a slightly faster forward
speed. Later in the period, Ramon is forecast to reach the western
portion of the ridge and turn northwestward. Although most of the
model guidance agrees with this general scenario, there is a fair
amount of spread in the track models. The GFS and HWRF show a
faster westward motion while the ECMWF is much slower. The UKMET
is the outlier by taking Ramon eastward toward central America as a
low pressure area develops over the western Caribbean. Given the
large spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast shows a slower
westward track and is close to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means.
The confidence in the track forecast is quite low and interests
along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system.
Remnants Of Ramon Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2017
Satellite data indicate that Ramon has degenerated into a trough
of low pressure and that the shower activity near the center
of circulation NHC was tracking has practically vanished. Since
strong wind shear will prevail in this area, regeneration is not
anticipated. This is the last advisory issued by the National
Hurricane Center on this system.
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