Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this
evening and found that the hurricane is even a little stronger than
previously estimated. An average of the aircraft's flight level
winds, SFMR values, and dropsonde data support an intensity of 135
kt, making Jose very near category 5 strength. It is surprising
that Jose is as strong as the aircraft data suggests, since the
hurricane's satellite appearance has degraded a little during the
last several hours.
Jose is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected overnight and on Saturday, taking the
core of Jose just east of the northern Leeward Islands. The
hurricane is forecast to slow down and turn northward in 3 to 4 days
when it moves around the ridge and toward a large mid- to
upper-level low over the north Atlantic. The models then indicate
that the upper low will bypass Jose causing it to drift eastward or
meander at the end of the forecast period. The track forecast is
fairly close to the previous advisory and lies nearest to the
various consensus models.
Fluctuations in strength are likely overnight and on Saturday due to
the potential for eyewall replacement cycles, but Jose is expected
to remain at category 4 strength when it is closest to the northern
Leeward Islands. After that time, the models insist that a slow
weakening trend should occur through the remainder of the forecast
period due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, but then falls in line with the HCCA and ICON consensus
models from 48 to 120 h.
Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
An Air Force plane once again investigated Jose tonight, and
although the central pressure remained low, near 973 mb, the surface
winds were gradually decreasing and do not support hurricane
strength. This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak T-numbers
which indicated weakening. On this basis, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 60 kt. Although the shear is not too high, Jose
is moving over cool waters. This should result in additional
weakening and Jose is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in
about 48 hours.
Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Jose
is moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 8 kt. Currently,
Jose in embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, but
most of the global models forecast the development of a ridge to the
north in two days. This new pattern should block the motion
of the storm and Jose should begin to meander. The NHC forecast is
very similar to the previous one and follows the ECMWF model and the
HFIP corrected consensus model HCCA. It also uses the input from
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.
2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.
4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
are expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.
2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5
inches in Martha's Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolated
flash flooding.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 67
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017
The center of Jose has lacked deep convection for at least the past
12 hours. The cyclone now has the structure of an extratropical
cyclone, with rain persisting in a shield that is displaced well
to the west and northwest of the center. Based on this, Jose has
been declared post-tropical. Surface observations from extreme
southeast New England during the past 3 hours indicate that tropical
storm conditions are persisting along the coast, and the tropical
storm warnings in those locations remain in place. The National
Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Jose until the
threat of tropical storm conditions along the coast has subsided.
The initial intensity has been held at 45 kt, based on a recent
ASCAT pass that showed several 40-45 kt wind vectors in the NW
quadrant. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and
Jose is still expected to gradually spin down over the cold waters
of the North Atlantic for the next 3 days. Most of the global
models still show the remnant low dissipating within 96 h.
Jose remains stuck in weak steering flow and has continued to drift
slowly westward. Very little change has been made to the track
forecast, and all of the global models show that the cyclone will
continue to meander off the New England coast until it eventually
dissipates around day 4. The NHC forecast remains close to the
various track consensus aids.
Based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the wind radii
were extended in the NW and NE quadrants. However this wind appears
to be primarily occuring offshore, to the east of Cape Cod.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are
expected to continue through tonight.
2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days. Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.
