(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4S
69.0E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101358Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MIXED, WITH
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
提升卡
千斤頂
