21E.Tina 直接命名曇花一現

0908morakot · 2016-11-9 20:13

  熱帶風暴
編號：21 E
名稱：Tina

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2016 年 11 月 09 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 11 月 14 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 11 月 19 日 07 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速：35 kt
海平面最低氣壓：1005 百帕

  過去路徑圖
無

  討論帖圖片
92E.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.10N.100W

NHC:20%

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of
low pressure located about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have increased since yesterday. This system is expected to
move northwestward and then northward at 5 to 10 mph into an area of
strong upper-level winds late this week and this weekend, and
development, if any, should be slow to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2016-11-14 12:14

突然就直接升格21E並命名Tina了，即將再度降格TD。

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140208
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP212016
900 PM MDT SUN NOV 13 2016

Organized deep convection has developed closer to the center of the
low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico since this afternoon.  On this
basis, the system is being designated as a tropical storm with 35
kt winds, in agreement with a satellite classification of T2.5 from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data.  Even though Tina is over 30 deg C
waters, a large mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward
into the eastern Pacific from the central United States is imparting
around 30 kt of south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone.  This
shear is forecast to increase further during the next 24 hours when
a piece of the trough amplifies over the Gulf of Mexico, and this
should cause Tina to degenerate into a remnant low.  The NHC
intensity forecast is consistent with the statistical-dynamical
guidance and shows dissipation by 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 350/03.  In the very short term,
Tina should continue to move generally northward, or possibly
even erratically toward the current convective burst, in a deep
layer of south-southwesterly flow.  Within about 12 hours, the shear
is forecast to be extremely strong and result in a decoupling of the
cyclone.  Once this occurs, Tina should turn west-northwestward and
westward into the low-level flow around the eastern Pacific
subtropical ridge.  The NHC forecast track is a little to the right
of all of the guidance through 12 hours and then merges with the
multi-model consensus until dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 18.5N 107.1W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  14/1200Z 18.9N 107.4W 30 KT  35 MPH
24H  15/0000Z 19.1N 108.6W 25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  15/1200Z 19.0N 109.6W 20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain