blackcat

這隻未來形勢可能蠻有趣的
強度數值報的也都蠻可觀
等K大神分析了;P

補個MEDIUM

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3N 146.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 380NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130440Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE BOTH
DEPICT BROAD TURNING WITH RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH
SIGNS OF IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION. A 130013Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
REVEALS ELONGATED TURNING BEGINNING TO FORM A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 5 TO 10 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-
36HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

JTWC2030Z發布TCFA

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 398
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN
131718Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AIDED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
TO THE NORTHWEST, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

typhoonman

blackcat 發表於 2016-10-13 14:55
這隻未來形勢可能蠻有趣的
強度數值報的也都蠻可觀
等K大神分析了

這隻準海馬颱風，似乎有來自跨赤道的氣流供應水汽以及將經過高OHC的洋面，未來的強度非常的可觀，我個人的觀點是有可能成為今年的第四個CAT5超級颱風，強度約落在145至160kts左右(以今年的颱風大部份出現因有利於颱風環境因素快速增強的趨勢來看)。

s6815711

目前誤差從巴士海峽通過到轉向都有
不過GFS和昨天比起來有西調

ben811018

10/14 00Z
EC系集平均與決定性預報

周子堯@FB

沒意外的話，待會九點JMA應該就會把它升為颱風

TPPN12 PGTW 142130

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SE PF YAP)

B. 14/2100Z

C. 8.64N

D. 144.10E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 2.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE