0908morakot

  四級颶風  
編號：15 L
名稱：Nicole


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2016 年 10 月 02 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 10 月 04 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 10 月 20 日 21 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速：115 kt ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：952 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
98L.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.15.5N.51.5W


NHC:20%

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles
east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.  The low has moved into an
area where upper-level winds could be a little more conducive for
development during the next day or two, but these winds are
expected to become unfavorable again by the middle of the week.
Therefore, significant development of the low is still expected to
be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward
at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

發展算超乎預期，目前已經到60節，或許有機會看到北大藤原大戲。

000
WTNT45 KNHC 061435
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since the last advisory,
and consists of a ragged CDO with some banding features over the
southeastern portion of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is
restricted over the northern semicircle of the storm.  Dvorak
classifications are unchanged from SAB and TAFB, yielding intensity
estimates of 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, so the advisory
intensity is held at 60 kt.  Although Nicole could reach hurricane
strength today, increasing north-northwesterly shear should lead to
a slow weakening trend, beginning tomorrow.  The official intensity
forecast is a blend of the latest LGEM and SHIPS guidance.

The forward motion is slowing, and the motion is now estimated to
be about 325/5 kt.  A mid-level high pressure area to the northeast
of Nicole should quickly collapse while a shortwave trough drops
southward into the area.  This will leave the tropical cyclone in
weak steering currents within the next day or so.  A high pressure
area is forecast to build to the west and northwest of Nicole
during the next couple of days, and this should force some
southward component of motion.  Overall, however, the official
forecast, like the previous one, shows little overall motion
throughout the period.  This is in reasonable agreement with the
dynamical model consensus.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting
Bermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the
next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 26.8N  64.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 27.5N  65.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 27.8N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 27.3N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 26.9N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 27.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 28.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

底層眼可能差不多完成了，可見光開始隱約看的到風眼，還是有機會叩關C1

t02436

的確超乎預期，03Z站上90節，C2達成，只不過風眼已經填塞，NHC預測將開始減弱，但五天後將有機會重回颶風級別。

000
WTNT45 KNHC 070241
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole has rapidly intensified during the day, with a pinhole eye
apparent in satellite and microwave imagery.  Although the eye has
recently become obscured, Dvorak satellite estimates support an
initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.  All of the guidance
suggests that the shear near Nicole should increase during the next
couple of days since the tropical cyclone will be in an environment
of increasingly strong upper-level northerly winds.  Thus Nicole
is probably near its peak intensity, and slow weakening is forecast
from Friday through the weekend.  The large-scale environment
could become more conducive for re-intensification by days 4 or 5,
and some restrengthening is shown around that time.  The new
intensity forecast is very close to the previous one, slightly above
the model consensus.

Nicole has moved very little during the past several hours.  The
hurricane will likely begin to drift southward by tomorrow
afternoon due to steering from the western side of a mid-level
trough.  Thereafter, Nicole could gradually turn toward the
southwest, west, and northwest over the next few days around a
ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean.  There is better agreement in
the guidance than yesterday, although the ECMWF remains a bit of an
outlier solution to the east.  Since a stronger system would likely
respond more to the deep-layer northerly flow, the new NHC track is
shifted a bit to the south of the previous forecast in a couple of
days, but ends up close to the last NHC advisory by day 5.

A climate note:  This is the first time since September 10, 1964
that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W.  Interestingly,
those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions
as Matthew and Nicole are now.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 27.4N  65.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  07/1200Z 27.3N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  08/0000Z 26.8N  65.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  08/1200Z 26.1N  64.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  09/0000Z 25.5N  64.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  10/0000Z 26.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  11/0000Z 27.5N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 29.0N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

t02436

風眼又捲出來了
NHC#30A報評價65節，重回颶風。

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
200 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR
BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 66.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

第一次飛機實測進行中，第一次穿心完成




目前預測將以85節強度從百慕達西方外海通過

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 27.3N  65.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 27.7N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 28.6N  66.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 30.2N  66.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 32.2N  65.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  14/1200Z 36.8N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  15/1200Z 40.5N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/1200Z 41.8N  53.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

...

風眼清晰開出 NHC評價95kts

並預計12hr後達到顛峰 平均風預期100kts

或許有機會一搏MH

蜜露

稍早實測出了955hPa

升格Cat.3  105kts

有點像桑達.   只是桑達在西太平洋 , 妮可在北大西洋 .







Cat.4 也是有可能 ...

jwpk9899

鋒頭實在都被西太的TD搶光光  連上C4了都沒人發現呀