0908morakot

  五級颶風  
編號：14 L
名稱：Matthew


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2016 年 09 月 25 日 12 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 09 月 28 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 10 月 10 日 16 時
登陸地點　　：海地 南部省
　　　　　　　古巴 關塔那摩省
　　　　　　　美國 南卡羅來納州 麥克勒安威爾

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速：140 kt ( Cat.5 )
海平面最低氣壓：934 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
97L.INVEST.20kts.1012mb.7.5N.33.8W


NHC:20%

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a tropical wave and a low pressure system located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph for the next several days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development as the system, and a tropical depression could form
while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

第二次飛機實測持續測得大於35節的風力，NHC評價50節並認為有閉合風場，直接升格14L命名Matthew




目前預測Matthew將以90節直接襲擊牙買加。

000
WTNT44 KNHC 281502
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing
through the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation.  The
aircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface
winds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.
As a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical
storm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that
further strengthening should be limited today, but environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew
favor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the
statistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models
in deepening the system.

Since the center has very recently formed, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the
eastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance
is tightly clustered through 72 hours.  After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the
ridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are
significant differences among the track models as to when the turn
takes place and how sharp it will be.  The GFS takes the cyclone
northwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing
developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  For now, the NHC track
lies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 13.4N  60.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 13.6N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  29/1200Z 13.9N  66.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  30/0000Z 13.9N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  30/1200Z 13.8N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  01/1200Z 13.5N  74.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  02/1200Z 14.8N  75.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 17.5N  76.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

陳約禮@FB

000
WTNT44 KNHC 301449
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Matthew has continued to intensify this morning.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a peak SFMR wind
of 99 kt and a 700-mb wind of 103 kt.  Based on these data, the
initial intensity is set to 100 kt for this advisory.  The aircraft
reported that the central pressure had fallen to 968 mb, and also
observed a 16 n mi wide eye that is open to the southwest.  Water
vapor imagery shows a well-established poleward outflow channel,
with outflow also expanding in the southwest quadrant.

This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly
shear of around 20 kt.  The SHIPS model output shows this shear
continuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPS
and LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time.  This
weakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricane
models.  However, I am reluctant to show a decrease in intensity
given that the environment around the cyclone does not appear to
change much.  Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are
certainly possible, but the official forecast remains above much of
the guidance in the short range and keeps the intensity at 100 kt
through 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due to
potential land interaction.  Late in the period the NHC forecast is
closest to the HWRF model.

Matthew has been moving west-southwestward during the past few
hours, with an initial motion estimate of 255/10.  The cyclone
should continue moving south of due west for the next 12 hours to
the south of a mid-level ridge nosing into the northern Caribbean
Sea.  After that, Matthew should gradually turn poleward as the
ridge retreats eastward and a trough moves into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.  There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance,
both along and across track.  The ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and
the UKMET are slower and on the right side of the guidance envelope
at 48 hours and beyond.  The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, HWRF, and
COAMPS-TC are faster and farther to the left.  The new NHC track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the south in the first 36
hours due to the initial motion, and lies a little south of the
consensus and close to the GFS at this time range.  Beyond that
time, the official forecast is an update of the previous one and
lies a little to the east of the latest multi-model consensus and a
bit to the west of the GFS/ECMWF blend.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 13.7N  70.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  01/0000Z 13.5N  71.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  01/1200Z 13.5N  73.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  02/0000Z 13.8N  74.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  02/1200Z 14.7N  75.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  03/1200Z 17.5N  76.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  04/1200Z 21.5N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 25.5N  75.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

看來沒甚麼人關注這顆，不過颶風獵人稍早在700百帕層面測得103KT的風速，NHC隨即在15Z升為MH，100KT



底層已經開眼

高層也快了

前方OHC優良

數值仍然看好安然通過北方的強大風切之後，進入北大西洋再創巔峰

蜜露

AF303 最新實測是 940.2hPa

一口氣達到了Cat.4最上限

t02436

根據實測03Z再調升強度5Kts至140節，正式問鼎五級颶風。

...MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007...

NHC於報文中提及眼牆置換即將開始，強度發展或將停滯，未來將逐漸北轉朝牙買加與古巴前進。

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind
of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations.
Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably
with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since
2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to
140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic
basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain
a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the
reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum
winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur
soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given
that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some
weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a
category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern
Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of
Cuba.  It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid
strengthening of Matthew.

Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt
steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic.
In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of
the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and
then northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very
consistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate
much from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast
period, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track
models are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing
the uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely
the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 13.3N  72.3W  140 KT 160 MPH
12H  01/1200Z 13.3N  73.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
24H  02/0000Z 13.7N  74.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  02/1200Z 14.6N  75.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  03/0000Z 16.0N  76.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  04/0000Z 19.0N  76.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
96H  05/0000Z 23.1N  76.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 26.0N  76.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

typhoonman

這應該是北大西洋自2007年狄恩(Dean)和費里克斯(Felix)後，睽違將近10年的五級颶風了。話說北大西洋真的好久沒出現這種等級颶風，想必西半球的風迷一定會很熱絡的關注這個颶風生成發展現況囉!

開梅

長的不是很起眼，會發展成五級颶風我有點意外，因很少注意大西洋的颶風，印象中只有2007年狄恩氣勢驚人，沒想到都過了快十年了，那幾年好像五級颶風出現的頻率比往常多些，之後都是造成巨大災害的，如仙蒂之類的:)

t02436

從動圖來看北側明顯破了，NHC搭配實測結果持續調降強度，09Z降135節，15Z再降至125節。




眼牆置換或許已經開始，但官方還在等待最新的掃描。
另外，NHC跟隨GFS06Z，15Z東調認為Matthew將不會登陸牙買加。

000
WTNT44 KNHC 011453
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

The eye of Matthew has shrunk and become less distinct in
geostationary imagery during the past few hours.  Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show a very sharp wind
profile near the center and a radius of maximum winds of 7 n mi. The
central pressure has risen a little, to 947 mb on the last center
fix.  The highest SFMR wind sampled by the aircraft was 118 kt, so
the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 125 kt for this
advisory. Its possible that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun,
but there is not much evidence of a secondary wind maximum in the
aircraft data yet, and we haven't had any recent microwave imagery
to look at the inner-core structure.

Gradual weakening is expected in the next 24 hours, in agreement
with all of the guidance, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane until it until interacts with the land masses of
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba in 2-3 days.  After that time,
conditions appear conducive for restrengthening once Matthew moves
into the Bahamas late in the forecast period.  Note that there will
likely be short-term fluctuations in intensity due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles that are not shown here.

Matthew has been moving westward at around 5 kt under the influence
of a mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda.  This ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken and shift eastward, which should allow Matthew
to turn northward while it moves into a weakness in the ridge during
the forecast period.  The track model guidance is in generally good
agreement on this scenario through 48 hours, and during that time
the new NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the right toward
the latest consensus aids, but remains to their left and lies near
the latest GFS track.

Late in the period the track model spread increases, with the ECMWF
on the right and the GFS well to the left.  The evolution of the
western Atlantic subtropical ridge late in the period appears to be
sensitive to the track and strength of the mid/upper-level low
currently centered over the Ohio Valley.  The ECMWF shows a weaker
ridge, which allows Matthew to move farther east, while the GFS has
a stronger ridge and takes Matthew more north-northwestward.  Given
the uncertainty and variability seen in the handling of these
features from cycle to cycle, the NHC forecast continues to lie in
between the two scenarios, and maintains continuity with the
previous official forecast.  The new NHC track is well east of the
latest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids.  Needless
to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 13.4N  73.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  02/0000Z 13.6N  73.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  02/1200Z 14.5N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  03/0000Z 15.7N  75.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  03/1200Z 17.1N  75.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  04/1200Z 20.5N  75.5W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H  05/1200Z 24.0N  76.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  06/1200Z 26.5N  76.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan