asus5635

JMA預測今晚可以變成T.D

ben811018

ＬＬＣＣ狹長
數值仍看好發展
沿著高壓邊緣朝東北進行
週三開始影響近畿、中部及關東地區
影響程度也不小....

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.4N 124.9E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA,
JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING SEEN IN A 040156Z ASCAT
PASS. A 040101Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED
CONVECTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT BANDING. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
MODEL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

asus5635

CWB:TD

asus5635

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.4N 124.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY
180 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 050532Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH BANDING BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MAINLAND JAPAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

小vin

小J發GW了~

asus5635

JMA:SW