陳約禮@FB

  中度颱風  
編號：1609 ( 10 W )
名稱：蒲公英（Mindulle）


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2016 年 08 月 17 日 14 時
升格熱低日期：2016 年 08 月 17 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 08 月 19 日 14 時
停編日期　　：2016 年 08 月 23 日 11 時
登陸地點　　：日本 千葉縣 館山市
　　　　　　　　　 北海道 日高町

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：33 m/s ( 12 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：35 m/s ( 65 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC) : 55 kts ( TS )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 975 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 180 公里
十級風半徑　　：   60 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
99W.INVEST.15.kts.1010mb.15N.140E

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 15N 141E ENE SLOWLY.


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.3N 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170943Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
UNORGANIZED, SHALLOW, AND FRAGMENTED BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

t02436 發表於 2016-8-17 21:39
JTWC評級Low

JMA 12Z升格熱帶低壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 15N 141E ENE SLOWLY.

blackcat

這隻風場還不錯
看會不會先殺出一條血路

t02436

blackcat 發表於 2016-8-17 22:41
這隻風場還不錯
看會不會先殺出一條血路

看來是如此，JTWC評級Low兩小時之後直接改發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 139.8E TO 17.6N 148.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 140.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 140.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 171143Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE INTO
THE 30 TO 35 KNOT WESTERLY SURGE TO THE SOUTH. AN OLDER 170843Z
CORIOLIS PASS SHOWED SHALLOW FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE FEEDING THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHEARED JUST WEST OF CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
10 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181600Z.//
NNNN

陳聰@FB

DoraboyTCFSV1.07(自製系集) 預測99W完違反季風環流圈西南側低壓向東北／停留不動的特性 調轉預報向西走 :o 哈哈

t02436

JTWC初報巔峰暫時上望55節，後期路徑可能會複製璨樹。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 15.1N 142.0E MARIANAS MOVING EAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

蜜露

雖然10W的渦度僅紅色 , 但是他的高層環境是目前最好的 .










路徑和之前的幾個颱風類似