0908morakot

  輕度颱風  
編號：1611 ( 13 W )
名稱：圓規（Kompasu）


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2016 年 08 月 16 日 21 時
升格熱低日期：2016 年 08 月 17 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 08 月 20 日 08 時
停編日期　　：2016 年 08 月 22 日 03 時
登陸地點　　：日本 北海道 釧路市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：18 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC) :  40 kts ( TS )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 995 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 150 公里
十級風半徑　　： ---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
98W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.19N.148E

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 18N 150E ENE SLOWLY.


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

大熱低時代來臨XD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 18N 150E ENE SLOWLY.

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8N
148.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A CONSOLDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 180429Z SSMI 85GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 172328Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER, AND 15 TO 20 KNOT
EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS LOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

JMA 00Z雖然撤銷TD認定消散，但預測明天00Z又會再度升格。

t02436

12Z重回TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 23N 153E NORTH 10 KT.

系統東南側掃出大面積30節風力


JMA對10W及98W東側海面發出GW

周子堯@FB

大J發布了TCFA!!

WTPN21 PGTW 182300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
215 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.2N 154.5E TO 33.0N 148.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.0N 154.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY
970 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 182009Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FURTHER
SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE
BULK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
OFFSETTING THE MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON GYRE AND MODELS SHOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. DO TO THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192300Z.//
NNNN

Meow

JMA也發布了風警報。


（中間的）

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 25.6N 152.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

周子堯@FB

98W升評為high

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3N
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN 182009Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS WELL-
DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW OFFSETTING
THE MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON GYRE AND MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

t02436

JMA發布GW

熱帯低気圧
平成28年08月19日22時25分 発表

<19日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南鳥島近海
中心位置        北緯 29度30分(29.5度)
東経 151度30分(151.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 35km/h(20kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<20日09時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        日本の東
予報円の中心        北緯 33度25分(33.4度)
東経 147度25分(147.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 45km/h(24kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<20日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の東
予報円の中心        北緯 36度50分(36.8度)
東経 143度25分(143.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 45km/h(24kt)
中心気圧        994hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)