Meow

  輕度颱風  
編號：1608 ( 11 W )
名稱：電母（Dianmu）


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2016 年 08 月 14 日 14 時
升格熱低日期：2016 年 08 月 15 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 08 月 18 日 08 時
停編日期　　：2016 年 08 月 19 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：中國 廣東省 湛江 雷州市 東里鎮
　　　　　　　越南 海防市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：23 m/s ( 9 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：20 m/s ( 40 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：25 m/s ( 強熱帶風暴 )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC) : 40 kts ( TS )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 980 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 120 公里
十級風半徑　　： ---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
95W.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.20.7N.114.4E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC 1130Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.7N 114.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. A 140426Z RSCAT
PASS INDICATED A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS. AN
OBSERVATION 60 NM TO THE WEST REPORTS ONLY 5 KNOT WINDS. A 140954Z
CORIOLIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVELAS BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGHING.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT GRADUALLY DRIFTS WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTUBANCE IS LOCATED IN A NARROW REGION OF LIGHT (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  WITH GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. MEAN SEA
LEVEL PRESSURES IN THE AREA ARE VERY LOW, NEAR 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

JMA 12Z編低壓區

LOW PRESSURE AREA 998 HPA NEAR 20N 114E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Meow

中央氣象局率先升格。



熱帶性低氣壓９９６百帕，在北緯２１．５度，東經１１６度，即在廣東海面，向西移動，時速１５公里，東沙島海面受其影響，將有８至１０級強陣風，航行及作業船隻請嚴加戒備。

t02436

補個Medium報文

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 20.7N 114.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 116.1E, APPROXIMATELY
115NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
142015Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A ELONGATED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION NEAR THE COAST OF
CHINA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL SURGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

ben811018

【南海北部熱帶性低氣壓９５Ｗ】
熱帶性低氣壓９５Ｗ目前位於南海北部，
因屬季風低壓系統，環流相當廣泛，
尤其系統南側的旺盛對流雲系發展相當深厚，
有持續發展的機會，是否成颱則有待觀察。

以目前資料研判，９５Ｗ短期滯留後，
沿著北方副高壓邊緣朝西北西沿著廣東近海移動，
並由廣西到廣東之間進入中國華南。

９５Ｗ雖然對台灣暫無直接影響，
但其外圍水氣還是會順著季風低壓環流飄向台灣，
迎風面的南部及東南部有局部陣雨，
旺盛對流雲系移入時則有局部較大雨勢，請注意。

此外，台灣正好位於強風帶邊緣，
中南部沿海風浪較大，從事海上活動請注意安全。

Meow

JMA也升格熱低了。

WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA

AT 21.9N 116.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.

POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

blackcat

其實這個TD意外的挺接近台灣
南部地區要注意外圍降雨
推估中心在這


風切圖
TC真不容易生存
隔壁的燦樹好不容易脫離風切卻早已被撕裂
這隻的空間也不大

愚輝

從 HKO 的雷達圖來看,95W的中心大約在紅圈位置,其對流散亂,並不明顯,須從HKO的連續圖像來勉強辨認。