B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.2N 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID-LEVEL TURNING
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE WHICH IS SEEN IN AN 052230Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT INDICATES AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.2N 168.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 164.5E, APPROXIMATELY
125 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS AN IMPROVEMENT IN
THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO 15 TO 20
KNOT NORTHERLY VWS. A 062215Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BETTER DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS STRUGGLING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS
OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE OUTFLOW OF TS 07W CONVERGING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE LLCC AND EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVEMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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