B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.5N 149.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST OF IWO TO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 212330Z ASCAT
PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MULTIDIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TAIL END OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND IT IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW PATTERN DURING THE SAME PERIOD. TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL
STRUCTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE
THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUBTROPICAL FOR THE NEXT DAY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 23.7N 150.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
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