0908morakot

  三級颶風  
編號：05 E
名稱：Darby


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2016 年 07 月 11 日 01 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 07 月 12 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 07 月 26 日 22 時
登陸地點　　：美國 夏威夷 大島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)：100 kt ( CAT.3 )
中太平洋颶風中心(CPHC)：55 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：962 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
97E.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.11.9N.104.4W


NHC:50%

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  However,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of this week while the low moves west-northwestward to
westward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

美國海軍發布TCFA


NHC提升評級至High

1. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area
of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo,
Mexico.  This shower and thunderstorm activity has become more
organized over the last day.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for continued development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the low moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph, away
from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

看來東太要連三發了...

t02436

15Z命名Darby

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 121432
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
900 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

Recent microwave data indicate that the depression has a well-
defined circulation with the center located to the northeast of the
strongest convection.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are
T2.0 from TAFB and T3.0 from SAB, and the latest ADT estimate is
right at the tropical storm threshold.  A consensus of these values
supports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm, with the
initial intensity set at 35 kt.  After starting off May and June
very quietly, the eastern North Pacific season has already caught
up to where it should be climatologically in terms of named storms.

Darby appears to have turned westward with an initial motion of
270/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge extending westward from northern
Mexico is expected to strengthen during the next three days, which
will steer Darby westward, or even a little south of due west,
during that time.  The model fields continue to show differences in
the strength of the ridge at the end of the forecast period.  The
ECMWF maintains a stronger ridge, with Darby possibly continuing a
westward motion, while the GFS erodes the ridge and allows Darby to
gain some latitude.  The track model envelope has again shifted
southward on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has
been nudged in that direction close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF.

Darby will be moving over a warm pool of SSTs around 29.5 degrees
Celsius during the next 24 hours, and the northeasterly vertical
shear affecting the cyclone should abate a bit.  Depending on
its exact track, Darby could move over the cold wake left behind by
Hurricanes Blas and Celia in a couple of days.  Some shear could
also persist for a few days, therefore only steady strengthening is
expected through 72 hours.  Colder water should then cause
weakening on days 4 and 5.  There is still a lot of spread among
the intensity models, so for now no significant changes are being
made to the previous NHC intensity forecast.  This scenario is a
little above the intensity consensus during the first three days
and then close to the consensus on days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 16.0N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/0000Z 15.9N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  13/1200Z 15.7N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  14/0000Z 15.5N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  14/1200Z 15.4N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  15/1200Z 15.9N 121.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  16/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 17.5N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

ben811018

東太平洋趕進度
七月已經四連發了！

t02436

中心稍早登陸夏威夷大島

** WTPA63 PHFO 240122 ***
TCUCP3

TROPICAL STORM DARBY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016
320 PM HST SAT JUL 23 2016

...CENTER OF DARBY MAKES LANDFALL...

The center of Tropical Storm Darby made landfall at about 200 PM
HST, or 0000 UTC, along the Kau coast on the Big Island. This is
about 10 miles east-northeast of Pahala and very close to the
location where Tropical Storm Iselle made landfall in 2014.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 155.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kodama