0908morakot

  二級颶風  
編號：04 E
名稱：Celia


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2016 年 07 月 06 日 00 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 07 月 08 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 07 月 17 日 04 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)：85 kt ( CAT.2 )
中太平洋颶風中心(CPHC)：35 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：972 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
96E.INVEST.25kts.1007mb.11.5N.105.5W


NHC:10%

1. An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this week
while it moves westward and then west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

轉眼之間NHC評價High且美國海軍已發布TCFA

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 525 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, are showing some signs of organization.  Continued
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves
westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

數值預測這隻Blas的小跟班也會有很顯著的發展@@

jwpk9899

升格04E  上看C2以上強度 跟在龐然大物後頭~

t02436

15Z正報直接評價40節，命名Celia

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 081452
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
900 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016

The cloud pattern of the tropical depression has become better
organized, with first-light visible imagery showing a ragged central
dense overcast surrounded by a complex of outer bands.  Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates are 30-35 kt, while AMSU and Advanced
Dvorak technique estimates from CIMSS are near 50 kt.  Based on
this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Celia with winds
of 40 kt.

The initial motion is 275/6.  There is little change from the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  Celia should be
steered westward with an increase in forward speed by a building
subtropical ridge to the north through the next 2 to 3 days.  After
that time, a west-northwestward turn is forecast as the system
nears the southwestern edge of the ridge.  The guidance has nudged
a little to the north for the first 36 hours or so, and thus this
part of the forecast track is also adjusted northward.  Otherwise,
the track is an update of the previous NHC advisory.

Celia is forecast to be in an environment of light vertical wind
shear for the next 3-4 days.  However, during the next 24-36 hours
the cyclone will pass near or over an area of cooler sea surface
temperatures left in the wake of Hurricane Blas.  This should slow
intensification during this time.  The storm is expected to reach
warmer water from 36-96 hours and significant strengthening is
expected at that time.  The intensity forecast calls for a peak
intensity of 90 kt, which is below that forecast by the SHIPS and
LGEM models.  From 96-120 hours, Celia should again encounter cooler
sea surface temperatures, which should cause the cyclone to weaken.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 12.6N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  09/0000Z 12.9N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  09/1200Z 13.3N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  10/0000Z 13.5N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  10/1200Z 13.8N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  11/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  12/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 17.5N 133.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

t02436

21Z評價70節，終於達到C1
巔峰上望90節，五天後進入中太。

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 102046
TCDEP4

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

After an early morning burst of deep, cold-topped thunderstorms over
the center, dry air entrainment has once again taken its toll on the
inner-core convective structure of Celia. The CDO has eroded due to
a narrow band of dry air wrapping all the way into the center, which
is noted in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Celia
has now taken the appearance of a tropical cyclone with a banding
eye feature. Dvorak estimates are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65
kt from SAB, and the consensus of various objective satellite
intensity estimates is 70 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set to 70 kt, making Celia the second hurricane of the
2016 eastern North Pacific season. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii are
based on 1808Z ASCAT-B wind data.

The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Celia should move westward for the next 24 h along the southern
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, followed by turn to the
west-northwest on day 2 as a shortwave trough briefly weakens the
ridge. By day 3 and beyond, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen
and force Celia back on a westward track. The latest NHC model
guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so
the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous
advisory and lies close to the TCVE consensus track model.

Celia still has another 24 h or so to strengthen while the vertical
wind shear remains light and sea-surface temperatures are above
26.5C. By 48 h, decreasing SSTs ahead of the hurricane should induce
gradual weakening, but not as fast as normal due to the light shear
conditions that are expected to continue through day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast remains above the intensity consensus model IVCN,
and continues to follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 15.0N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 15.1N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  11/1800Z 15.3N 126.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  12/0600Z 15.8N 128.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  12/1800Z 16.6N 130.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  13/1800Z 18.5N 133.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  14/1800Z 20.2N 137.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 21.1N 142.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart