AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1S 79.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 121949Z
AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BUT BROAD LLCC. A
PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS SHOWED A STRONG 30 KNOT WESTERLY WIND BURST
ALONG THE EQUATOR THAT IS ENHANCING CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW BUT MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONFLICTING ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS
IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND THEN TURNS POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
提升卡
千斤頂
