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krichard2011|2016-3-15 23:06
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MFR 升格熱低 目前上看 ITC
WTIO30 FMEE 151323
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2016/03/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 86.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/03/16 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2016/03/16 12 UTC: 10.8 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2016/03/17 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/03/17 12 UTC: 10.3 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2016/03/18 00 UTC: 10.6 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2016/03/18 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/03/19 12 UTC: 12.2 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/03/20 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 90.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN STRONG SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS WITHIN OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH BETTER DEFINED
CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS SMALL
WITH A DIAMETER OF THE FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR AROUND 160 NM. THE SYSTEM IS
OVER WARM WATERS, IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SPECIALLY SOUTHWARDS. GIVEN THE MICRO-WAVE
PRESENTATION THIS AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UPGRADED TO THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE AT 12 UTC ... ABOVE AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES
THAT ARE AROUND 25 KT.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE THE LEAD ON THE STEERING FLOW
AND A TURN TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED AT LEAST DURING 48
HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ABOUT LONG THIS TRACK WILL
LAST WITH GFS AND THE UK BRINGING THE SYSTEM EAST OF 90E AND THE EURO
LEAVING THE SYSTEM WITHIN OUR AREA ... THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON
A MEAN TRACK BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS.
THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, IS A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, AS THE
SYSTEM COULD MOVE A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARDS AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... AT LEAST A CLIMATOLOGICAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINU BUT GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM,
RAPID VARIATION (INCLUDING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND RAPID DECAY) IS
EXPECTED ...
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