92W 風切對流消長底層強化是關鍵

麻友飯 · 2013-5-2 16:02

結構一直散下去一路飄北不消幾日應該會被溫帶氣旋勾走發展機會很低

中心定位也.....嗯

jwpk9899 · 2013-5-1 20:21

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 144E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JMA維持LPA 氣壓降至1006hpa
今天對流幾乎都是消消長長的狀態
昨天對流消散後似乎又有重定位到不久前新爆的對流中

麻友飯 · 2013-4-30 22:37

JMA: LPA囉:loveliness:
WWJP25 RJTD 301200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 301200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 42N 138E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 750 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 1000 HPA AT 40N 146E
MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1002 HPA
AT 31N 132E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 50N 180E 40N 170E 40N 155E 40N 144E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 04N 146E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 30N 159E ESE 20 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N 110E TO 26N 118E 25N 123E 31N 132E 31N
141E.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 146E TO 40N 147E 39N 148E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 148E TO 37N 146E 36N 141E.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 148E TO 38N 151E 37N 154E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

服部武藏 · 2013-4-30 19:30

92W附近風切還是不弱整合時間仍舊會拉長

阿哩勒 92W附近幾乎沒有輻合= =""

92W附近有良好輻散

綜觀而言目前還要持續觀察這個熱帶擾動^^

麻友飯 · 2013-4-30 12:05

老J給LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.2N 146.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF A
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN OLDER OSCAT
PASS SHOWED WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED LLCC WERE
BETWEEN 05 TO 10 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE, WHICH IS FUELING THE
RECENT FLARES OF CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.