霧峰追風者

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.4N
134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT IS BECOMING
LOOSELY ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 291047Z AMSU-B 89GHZ PASS REVEALS LIMITED BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (30-31) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS REVEAL A SHORT 24-36 HOUR WINDOW FOR THE
LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF 98W BEFORE THE SYSTEM GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF TY 12W.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.