簽到天數: 2097 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2022-7-29 09:19
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本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2022-7-30 10:58 編輯
JTWC 28/22Z發布TCFA，29/00Z升格06W，判斷此擾動應為93W重編
2. REMARKS: INVEST 94W LIES IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT, ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A MONSOON GYRE FEATURE, IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
WINDFLOW THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY TO NEAR
20N. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS RELATIVELY ILL-
DEFINED, BUT ANIMATES SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
SERIES OF EARLIER PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL
LLCC IN FACT EXISTS UNDER FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 94W ARE UP TO 30 KNOTS OR EVEN A BIT
HIGHER IN THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, BUT WINDS
ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ARE MUCH LOWER, IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH THE
SYSTEM LYING UNDER AN AREA OF DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK
TAP INTO SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND WARM (28-
29C) SSTS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MONSOON GYRE WHICH IS SLOWING THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CORE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST, TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND ULTIMATELY TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RYUKUS, SOUTH OF KYUSHU. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
MIXED, WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING INTO A STRONG DEPRESSION
OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM, WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292200Z. 
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