老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：01 S
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 11 月 19 日 20 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 11 月 00 日 00 時
90S.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.10S.103E

老農民版夜神月

持續減弱,JTWC18Z對其發布最後一報德法分析

TPXS10 PGTW 241757

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY)

B. 24/1730Z

C. 14.28S

D. 105.54E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FIX ISSUED BY JTWC ON THIS AREA. THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   AMARAL

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布Final Warning

老農民版夜神月

BoM發布最終報

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 23/11/2021
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paddy
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 106.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  24/0000: 13.9S 106.7E:     040 (070):  035  (065):  998
+12:  24/0600: 13.7S 106.2E:     050 (095):  030  (055): 1002
+18:  24/1200: 13.6S 105.7E:     055 (105):  030  (055): 1002
+24:  24/1800: 13.5S 105.3E:     065 (115):  030  (055): 1001
+36:  25/0600: 13.4S 104.1E:     090 (165):  025  (045): 1004
+48:  25/1800: 13.3S 103.0E:     115 (215):  025  (045): 1004
+60:  26/0600: 13.4S 101.6E:     140 (265):  025  (045): 1005
+72:  26/1800: 13.4S 100.0E:     145 (270):  020  (035): 1007
+96:  27/1800: 13.0S  97.8E:     180 (335):  020  (035): 1006
+120: 28/1800: 11.7S  95.9E:     210 (385):  020  (035): 1006

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.

老農民版夜神月

BoM維持40節,並不再上望更高強度

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0055 UTC 23/11/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Paddy
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.6S
Longitude: 107.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:1.0/6 HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  23/0600: 13.7S 107.3E:     050 [090]:  040  [075]:  996
+12:  23/1200: 13.7S 107.1E:     060 [105]:  035  [065]:  999
+18:  23/1800: 13.8S 107.0E:     065 [115]:  035  [065]:  999
+24:  24/0000: 13.7S 106.7E:     070 [130]:  035  [065]:  999
+36:  24/1200: 13.5S 105.8E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]: 1002
+48:  25/0000: 13.3S 104.8E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]: 1003
+60:  25/1200: 13.2S 103.5E:     120 [220]:  025  [045]: 1005
+72:  26/0000: 13.1S 102.2E:     150 [280]:  025  [045]: 1005
+96:  27/0000: 12.6S 100.0E:     190 [350]:  020  [035]: 1007
+120: 28/0000: 12.4S  98.4E:     250 [460]:  020  [035]: 1007
REMARKS:
Position determined from animated IR imagery and microwave passes at 1815 and
2108 UTC.

Paddy has shown decreased organisation on satellite overnight. A flare of
lightning activity suggests the system may already be ingesting dry air from its
western edge. CIMSS analysed bulk shear was 12 knots from the north at 1800 UTC,
with stronger shear to the south. SATCON estimates for around 18UTC were at 35
¿40 knots. There have been no recent scatterometer passes for this system.  

With the decreased organisation it has become difficult to assign a DT as there
is little curvature evident in the deep convection. MET is 1.5 based on a W
trend. CI is held at 2.5 based on weakening rules.  ADT is at T2.8 but is less
reliable in this intensity range. Final intensity estimate is held at 40 knots.


The system is expected to continue to weaken as increasing shear and dry air
affect the system. The forecast track maintains 02U as a TC until 0600Z 24
November but it is possible that the system will weaken below TC intensity
during today. It may then re-intensify for a period overnight during the
diurnally favourable period. It is very unlikely to maintain intensity through
Wednesday.

Model guidance is consistent in steering the system to the west under the
influence of subtropical ridge to the south

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0730 UTC.

---

WDXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 107.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AT ANALYSIS TIME. ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL OUTER
BANDS AND A 222108Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
SET AT 40 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE CONGRUENCE OF OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES AT OR NEAR 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
PADDY REMAINS OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED
ENCROACHMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST IS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CORE.
ADDITIONALLY, HWRF AND GFS POTENTIAL VORTICITY CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSHEAR (SOUTHEAST) TILT OF THE CORE.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTING AN
EROSION OF THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP, AS WELL
AS BY A SYNTHETIC GFS HODOGRAPH INDICATING A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
VECTOR OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 221838Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 222340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC PADDY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY
AND FROM HERE ON OUT WILL HOLD STEADY FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE
BEGINNING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR
LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH. A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE STEERING LEVEL
LOWERS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY ALONG THE 26C
ISOTHERM, WHICH WILL SERVE TO LIMIT OCEAN HEAT FLUXES AND INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME TIME, MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
DRYING AND A REDUCTION IN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AFTER TAU 36, WITH FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN
TAU 72.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO PUSH THE SYSTEM
DIRECTLY INTO THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE, WHICH LOOPS THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU
24. WITH BOTH TRACKERS DISCOUNTED, THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN AN ENVELOPE THAT EXPANDS TO 95NM BY TAU 72.
THE JTWC TRACK LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS (MINUS NAVGEM) MEAN THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS CLUSTERED WITHIN 5-10 KNOTS OF THE MEAN,
WHICH THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY TRACKS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

BoM,JTWC12Z均定強40節

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 22/11/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Paddy
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 108.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south [171 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  22/1800: 13.7S 108.0E:     060 [115]:  045  [085]:  992
+12:  23/0000: 13.9S 107.8E:     070 [130]:  045  [085]:  992
+18:  23/0600: 14.0S 107.6E:     080 [145]:  040  [075]:  995
+24:  23/1200: 14.0S 107.5E:     080 [145]:  035  [065]:  998
+36:  24/0000: 14.0S 107.2E:     080 [150]:  035  [065]:  998
+48:  24/1200: 13.8S 106.5E:     105 [195]:  030  [055]: 1001
+60:  25/0000: 13.5S 105.7E:     130 [235]:  030  [055]: 1001
+72:  25/1200: 13.2S 104.8E:     160 [295]:  025  [045]: 1004
+96:  26/1200: 12.9S 102.9E:     220 [405]:  025  [045]: 1004
+120: 27/1200: 12.1S 101.5E:     210 [385]:  020  [035]: 1006
REMARKS:
Position determined from animated IR imagery. Earlier scatterometer passes
indicated gales wrapping around the southern and western side of the system and
deep convection continues within those quadrants.

Paddy [02U] is a smaller than average system that responded quickly to
favourable conditions overnight, however the system intensity has now plateaued
over the last 6-12 hours.

Dvorak assessment is based on an initial classification of T1.0 at 00Z on
21/11/2021. At 0000Z on 22/11/2021 FT is constrained to 2.5, although the
operational intensity estimate at that time was equivalent to T3.0 based on
scatterometer passes. At 1200UTC a wrap of 0.7 on EIR yields DT 3.0. While the
organisation of the system has improved over the last 24 hours there is less
deep convection near the system centre, thus MET is 2.5 based on a D- trend, PAT
is 3.0. FT and CI remain at 3.0.  

SSTs remain above 28C, with broadly low shear and favourable upper divergence
poleward of the system due to a mid-latitude trough. However as the trough moves
further east a ridge to the south is strengthening and as a small system the
intensity may fluctuate due to local variations in conditions.

Paddy is expected to move slowly south over the next 24 hours and intensify only
moderately. Beyond 24 hours the influence of the ridge to the south will
increase. Paddy is expected to commence a more westward track and weaken as dry
air wraps around the system and easterly wind shear increases. NWP is generally
consistent with the forecast movement of Paddy, though intensity varies and
fluctuations are unlikely to be adequately represented.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1930 UTC.

---

WDXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PADDY) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.7S 108.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 237 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF
DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AN ASSESSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221106Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FLARING CONVECTION ALONG WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. TC PADDY IS A FAIRLY COMPACT SYSTEM AND IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS PASS AND MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AVERAGED BETWEEN MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 221140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC PADDY HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, TC PADDY WILL MAKE ITS TURN
WESTWARD AND WILL START TO EXPERIENCE DRY AIR BEING INTRODUCED FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKENED INTENSITY OF 35 KTS. BY
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. DURING THIS TIME, TC
PADDY WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER AN AREA OF INCREASED VWS, FURTHER
CONTRIBUTING TO ITS DEMISE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
UNFAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TRACK. FULL
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FAVORING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE UKMET TRACK SHOOTS OFF TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT TAU 36, AND TURNS DUE NORTH AFTERWARDS. DUE
TO ITS ERRATIC NATURE, UKMET WAS DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST.
NAVGEM IS ANOTHER OUTLIER SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW). THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AGREEING
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS (ICNW).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格01S

01S PADDY 211122 0600 13.3S 108.2E SHEM 35 995

老農民版夜神月

BoM亦於風場掃描達標的支持下直接命名Paddy

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 12:07 pm WST on Monday 22 November 2021

Tropical Cyclone Paddy (Category 1) was located at 10:00 am CXT near 13.1S
108.0E,
that is 390 km southeast of Christmas Island and moving south southeast at 11
kilometres per hour.
Tropical Paddy has been named this morning as it strengthened over the last 12
hours. It is now a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone well to the southeast of
Christmas Island. It is expected to remain a Category 1 system for the next 24
hours as it slowly moves south. Beyond that period the system will move further
west and weaken.

The system is not expected to directly impact Christmas Island or the WA
mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 2 pm CXT.