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霧峰追風者|2021-10-8 09:36
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(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.5N 166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 289 NM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND. A 072253
METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHER WINDS (20 KNOTS) OFFSET TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. 
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