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JTWC00Z評級Medium
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.1N 89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM,
INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1951Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION
AND BROAD VORTICITY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WESTERLY WIND BURST
ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT POSITION IS
UNCERTAIN, MODELS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 30C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 
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